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Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

17°C 35%

18°C 32%

16°C 16%

19°C 12.4%

Polymarket

$40,748 Vol.

17°C 35%

18°C 32%

16°C 16%

19°C 12.4%

Polymarket

$40,748 Vol.

13°C or below

$3,831 Vol.

1%

14°C

$5,025 Vol.

1%

15°C

$5,170 Vol.

2%

16°C

$4,587 Vol.

16%

17°C

$3,285 Vol.

35%

18°C

$4,060 Vol.

32%

19°C

$3,294 Vol.

12%

20°C

$3,796 Vol.

4%

21°C

$2,949 Vol.

1%

22°C

$2,670 Vol.

<1%

23°C or higher

$2,084 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 17°C (35.5% implied probability) and 18°C (32.5%) for Madrid's highest temperature today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS projecting daytime maxima in the 16.5–18.5°C range under mild spring conditions influenced by a weak Azores High. Recent observations show highs near 18°C earlier this week from southerly flows, but the past 48 hours' shift to northerly winds has introduced cooler air advection and potential afternoon cloud cover from an approaching Atlantic disturbance, with ensemble means centering on 17°C. Key differentiators include boundary-layer insolation variability and cloud thickness—thicker overcast favors 17°C, while partial clearing could enable 18°C—against Madrid's late-March climatological average of 16–17°C. Hourly AEMET updates from Retiro and Barajas stations will clarify resolution as the day progresses.

Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 17°C (35.5% implied probability) and 18°C (32.5%) for Madrid's highest temperature today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS projecting daytime maxima in the 16.5–18.5°C range under mild spring conditions influenced by a weak Azores High. Recent observations show highs near 18°C earlier this week from southerly flows, but the past 48 hours' shift to northerly winds has introduced cooler air advection and potential afternoon cloud cover from an approaching Atlantic disturbance, with ensemble means centering on 17°C. Key differentiators include boundary-layer insolation variability and cloud thickness—thicker overcast favors 17°C, while partial clearing could enable 18°C—against Madrid's late-March climatological average of 16–17°C. Hourly AEMET updates from Retiro and Barajas stations will clarify resolution as the day progresses.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 17°C (35.5% implied probability) and 18°C (32.5%) for Madrid's highest temperature today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS projecting daytime maxima in the 16.5–18.5°C range under mild spring conditions influenced by a weak Azores High. Recent observations show highs near 18°C earlier this week from southerly flows, but the past 48 hours' shift to northerly winds has introduced cooler air advection and potential afternoon cloud cover from an approaching Atlantic disturbance, with ensemble means centering on 17°C. Key differentiators include boundary-layer insolation variability and cloud thickness—thicker overcast favors 17°C, while partial clearing could enable 18°C—against Madrid's late-March climatological average of 16–17°C. Hourly AEMET updates from Retiro and Barajas stations will clarify resolution as the day progresses.

Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 17°C (35.5% implied probability) and 18°C (32.5%) for Madrid's highest temperature today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS projecting daytime maxima in the 16.5–18.5°C range under mild spring conditions influenced by a weak Azores High. Recent observations show highs near 18°C earlier this week from southerly flows, but the past 48 hours' shift to northerly winds has introduced cooler air advection and potential afternoon cloud cover from an approaching Atlantic disturbance, with ensemble means centering on 17°C. Key differentiators include boundary-layer insolation variability and cloud thickness—thicker overcast favors 17°C, while partial clearing could enable 18°C—against Madrid's late-March climatological average of 16–17°C. Hourly AEMET updates from Retiro and Barajas stations will clarify resolution as the day progresses.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "17°C" at 35%, followed by "18°C" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?" has generated $40.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?" is "17°C" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "18°C" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.