Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 15°C high in London on April 3 at 49.2% implied probability, closely followed by 16°C at 31.6%, aligning with the latest Met Office forecast updated this morning (April 2) projecting a maximum of 15°C amid overcast skies, morning spells of rain clearing to drier midday conditions before evening showers, with moderate breezes gusting to 29 mph. BBC Weather concurs at 15°C with drizzle, while ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models show divergence—ranging 12–16°C based on cloud cover and precipitation timing—reflecting inherent short-term forecast uncertainty typical for early spring. Climatological April 3 averages hover around 13°C, but mild southerly influences support these elevated trader odds; official resolution will use Met Office-recorded maxima from London stations like Heathrow, with hourly updates throughout the day potentially shifting sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on April 3?
Highest temperature in London on April 3?
15°C 44.1%
16°C 34.3%
17°C or higher 9.3%
14°C 7%
$62,407 Vol.
$62,407 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
7%
15°C
44%
16°C
34%
17°C or higher
9%
15°C 44.1%
16°C 34.3%
17°C or higher 9.3%
14°C 7%
$62,407 Vol.
$62,407 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
$7,934 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$4,125 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$4,098 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$4,734 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$5,238 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$5,738 Vol.
1%
13°C
$6,319 Vol.
3%
14°C
$5,927 Vol.
7%
15°C
$6,017 Vol.
44%
16°C
$4,585 Vol.
34%
17°C or higher
$7,723 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 15°C high in London on April 3 at 49.2% implied probability, closely followed by 16°C at 31.6%, aligning with the latest Met Office forecast updated this morning (April 2) projecting a maximum of 15°C amid overcast skies, morning spells of rain clearing to drier midday conditions before evening showers, with moderate breezes gusting to 29 mph. BBC Weather concurs at 15°C with drizzle, while ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models show divergence—ranging 12–16°C based on cloud cover and precipitation timing—reflecting inherent short-term forecast uncertainty typical for early spring. Climatological April 3 averages hover around 13°C, but mild southerly influences support these elevated trader odds; official resolution will use Met Office-recorded maxima from London stations like Heathrow, with hourly updates throughout the day potentially shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:34 PM ET
Volume
$62,407End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 15°C high in London on April 3 at 49.2% implied probability, closely followed by 16°C at 31.6%, aligning with the latest Met Office forecast updated this morning (April 2) projecting a maximum of 15°C amid overcast skies, morning spells of rain clearing to drier midday conditions before evening showers, with moderate breezes gusting to 29 mph. BBC Weather concurs at 15°C with drizzle, while ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models show divergence—ranging 12–16°C based on cloud cover and precipitation timing—reflecting inherent short-term forecast uncertainty typical for early spring. Climatological April 3 averages hover around 13°C, but mild southerly influences support these elevated trader odds; official resolution will use Met Office-recorded maxima from London stations like Heathrow, with hourly updates throughout the day potentially shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$62,407End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 15°C high in London on April 3 at 49.2% implied probability, closely followed by 16°C at 31.6%, aligning with the latest Met Office forecast updated this morning (April 2) projecting a maximum of 15°C amid overcast skies, morning spells of rain clearing to drier midday conditions before evening showers, with moderate breezes gusting to 29 mph. BBC Weather concurs at 15°C with drizzle, while ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS models show divergence—ranging 12–16°C based on cloud cover and precipitation timing—reflecting inherent short-term forecast uncertainty typical for early spring. Climatological April 3 averages hover around 13°C, but mild southerly influences support these elevated trader odds; official resolution will use Met Office-recorded maxima from London stations like Heathrow, with hourly updates throughout the day potentially shifting sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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