Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated within the last 24 hours, project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 at around 15°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that cap solar heating, aligning with the 56.5% market-implied probability for this outcome. Current observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service report midday readings of 14°C with open conditions and 84% humidity, consistent with a modest peak amid early spring climatology—historical April 5 averages near 14-15°C influenced by Black Sea moderation. The 27.5% odds on 14°C reflect potential for increased cloud cover, while higher outcomes remain low due to model consensus spread of 14-16°C; traders await final hourly data and official station measurements from Istanbul Airport or Florya for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
14°C 69%
15°C 34%
16°C 7%
17°C 3.6%
$39,091 Vol.
$39,091 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
12°C
<1%
14°C
60%
15°C
34%
16°C
7%
17°C
4%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 69%
15°C 34%
16°C 7%
17°C 3.6%
$39,091 Vol.
$39,091 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
12°C
$3,130 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$4,653 Vol.
60%
15°C
$2,379 Vol.
34%
16°C
$4,130 Vol.
7%
17°C
$3,533 Vol.
4%
18°C
$2,856 Vol.
1%
19°C
$3,067 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$3,144 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated within the last 24 hours, project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 at around 15°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that cap solar heating, aligning with the 56.5% market-implied probability for this outcome. Current observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service report midday readings of 14°C with open conditions and 84% humidity, consistent with a modest peak amid early spring climatology—historical April 5 averages near 14-15°C influenced by Black Sea moderation. The 27.5% odds on 14°C reflect potential for increased cloud cover, while higher outcomes remain low due to model consensus spread of 14-16°C; traders await final hourly data and official station measurements from Istanbul Airport or Florya for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Volume
$39,091End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated within the last 24 hours, project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 at around 15°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that cap solar heating, aligning with the 56.5% market-implied probability for this outcome. Current observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service report midday readings of 14°C with open conditions and 84% humidity, consistent with a modest peak amid early spring climatology—historical April 5 averages near 14-15°C influenced by Black Sea moderation. The 27.5% odds on 14°C reflect potential for increased cloud cover, while higher outcomes remain low due to model consensus spread of 14-16°C; traders await final hourly data and official station measurements from Istanbul Airport or Florya for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,091End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated within the last 24 hours, project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5 at around 15°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that cap solar heating, aligning with the 56.5% market-implied probability for this outcome. Current observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service report midday readings of 14°C with open conditions and 84% humidity, consistent with a modest peak amid early spring climatology—historical April 5 averages near 14-15°C influenced by Black Sea moderation. The 27.5% odds on 14°C reflect potential for increased cloud cover, while higher outcomes remain low due to model consensus spread of 14-16°C; traders await final hourly data and official station measurements from Istanbul Airport or Florya for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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