Market icon

Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

48-49°F 33%

46-47°F 23%

50-51°F 20%

52-53°F 10%

Polymarket

$31,278 Vol.

48-49°F 33%

46-47°F 23%

50-51°F 20%

52-53°F 10%

Polymarket

$31,278 Vol.

43°F or below

$2,564 Vol.

4%

44-45°F

$1,107 Vol.

8%

46-47°F

$883 Vol.

23%

48-49°F

$1,065 Vol.

33%

50-51°F

$1,145 Vol.

20%

52-53°F

$1,090 Vol.

10%

54-55°F

$1,619 Vol.

3%

56-57°F

$2,004 Vol.

3%

58-59°F

$3,086 Vol.

1%

60-61°F

$693 Vol.

1%

62°F or higher

$16,021 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Chicago on March 28 implies a high temperature near 48°F, driving trader consensus with 48-49°F at 31.5% implied probability, edging out 46-47°F (25%) and 50-51°F (20.5%) amid model uncertainty. GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverge slightly on cloud cover and southerly wind speeds, which could cap peaks via increased mixing or lake breeze cooling from Lake Michigan, while weak ridging aloft limits warmer outliers. These factors differentiate the tight cluster from seasonal norms around 47°F, with historical late-March volatility adding to the spread. Traders eye afternoon soundings and tomorrow's 12z model runs for shifts before resolution at O'Hare International Airport.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$31,278
End Date
Mar 28, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Chicago on March 28 implies a high temperature near 48°F, driving trader consensus with 48-49°F at 31.5% implied probability, edging out 46-47°F (25%) and 50-51°F (20.5%) amid model uncertainty. GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverge slightly on cloud cover and southerly wind speeds, which could cap peaks via increased mixing or lake breeze cooling from Lake Michigan, while weak ridging aloft limits warmer outliers. These factors differentiate the tight cluster from seasonal norms around 47°F, with historical late-March volatility adding to the spread. Traders eye afternoon soundings and tomorrow's 12z model runs for shifts before resolution at O'Hare International Airport.

The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Chicago on March 28 implies a high temperature near 48°F, driving trader consensus with 48-49°F at 31.5% implied probability, edging out 46-47°F (25%) and 50-51°F (20.5%) amid model uncertainty. GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverge slightly on cloud cover and southerly wind speeds, which could cap peaks via increased mixing or lake breeze cooling from Lake Michigan, while weak ridging aloft limits warmer outliers. These factors differentiate the tight cluster from seasonal norms around 47°F, with historical late-March volatility adding to the spread. Traders eye afternoon soundings and tomorrow's 12z model runs for shifts before resolution at O'Hare International Airport.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "48-49°F" at 33%, followed by "46-47°F" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?" has generated $31.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?" is "48-49°F" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "46-47°F" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.