Polymarket traders' tight consensus, with $4,200-$4,600 and $4,600-$5,000 bins at 18.3% and 18.0% implied probabilities, reflects gold's recent consolidation around $4,700 for the June Comex (GCM26) contract amid competing pressures from a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising Fed funds rate hike bets following President Trump's inconclusive April 2 address on the Iran conflict. A four-week losing streak snapped last week with a 3.5% rebound, driven by stagflation fears and Goldman Sachs' reiterated $5,400 year-end forecast backed by 60 tonnes monthly emerging-market central bank purchases, yet short-term USD gains and scaled-back rate cut expectations cap upside. Key differentiators include April CPI data and the May FOMC meeting, which could either validate higher bins via softer inflation or favor lower ranges on persistent real yields above 2%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Gold (GC) settle at in June?
What will Gold (GC) settle at in June?
$4,200-$4,600 18.7%
$4,600-$5,000 18%
$5,000-$5,400 15.8%
$3,800-$4,200 13.6%
$862,823 Vol.
$862,823 Vol.
<$3,800
7%
$3,800-$4,200
14%
$4,200-$4,600
19%
$4,600-$5,000
18%
$5,000-$5,400
16%
$5,400-$5,800
12%
$5,800-$6,200
7%
>$6,200
5%
$4,200-$4,600 18.7%
$4,600-$5,000 18%
$5,000-$5,400 15.8%
$3,800-$4,200 13.6%
$862,823 Vol.
$862,823 Vol.
<$3,800
7%
$3,800-$4,200
14%
$4,200-$4,600
19%
$4,600-$5,000
18%
$5,000-$5,400
16%
$5,400-$5,800
12%
$5,800-$6,200
7%
>$6,200
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' tight consensus, with $4,200-$4,600 and $4,600-$5,000 bins at 18.3% and 18.0% implied probabilities, reflects gold's recent consolidation around $4,700 for the June Comex (GCM26) contract amid competing pressures from a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising Fed funds rate hike bets following President Trump's inconclusive April 2 address on the Iran conflict. A four-week losing streak snapped last week with a 3.5% rebound, driven by stagflation fears and Goldman Sachs' reiterated $5,400 year-end forecast backed by 60 tonnes monthly emerging-market central bank purchases, yet short-term USD gains and scaled-back rate cut expectations cap upside. Key differentiators include April CPI data and the May FOMC meeting, which could either validate higher bins via softer inflation or favor lower ranges on persistent real yields above 2%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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