Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for Gold futures (GC) closing above $2,350 by June 28 settlement, fueled by surging Fed rate-cut odds after May's softer CPI at 3.3% YoY versus 3.4% expected. Spot gold holds near $2,330/oz, up 14% YTD on DXY weakness to 104.2 and central bank buying topping 1,037 tonnes last year. Hawkish FOMC June 11-12 dot plot or hotter June CPI/PPI could trigger pullback via higher real yields, while escalating Middle East tensions bolster safe-haven bids. Watch 10Y Treasury yield below 4.3% as bullish threshold; trader consensus reflects real-money bets on sub-4% Fed funds futures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedGold (GC) above ___ end of June?
Gold (GC) above ___ end of June?
$45,050 Vol.
$8,000
13%
$7,000
14%
$6,500
16%
$6,200
23%
$6,000
19%
$5,800
20%
$5,600
38%
$5,400
39%
$5,200
49%
$5,000
59%
$4,800
65%
$4,600
74%
$45,050 Vol.
$8,000
13%
$7,000
14%
$6,500
16%
$6,200
23%
$6,000
19%
$5,800
20%
$5,600
38%
$5,400
39%
$5,200
49%
$5,000
59%
$4,800
65%
$4,600
74%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for Gold futures (GC) closing above $2,350 by June 28 settlement, fueled by surging Fed rate-cut odds after May's softer CPI at 3.3% YoY versus 3.4% expected. Spot gold holds near $2,330/oz, up 14% YTD on DXY weakness to 104.2 and central bank buying topping 1,037 tonnes last year. Hawkish FOMC June 11-12 dot plot or hotter June CPI/PPI could trigger pullback via higher real yields, while escalating Middle East tensions bolster safe-haven bids. Watch 10Y Treasury yield below 4.3% as bullish threshold; trader consensus reflects real-money bets on sub-4% Fed funds futures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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