Erdoğan's current presidential term extends into 2028 under Turkey's constitution, with the next scheduled election in May of that year and no parliamentary vote or snap election mechanism likely to force an earlier exit before the end of 2026. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to him remaining in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting the incumbent's firm institutional control, weakened opposition through ongoing legal proceedings, and absence of any acute health, economic, or diplomatic crisis capable of triggering removal in the short term. This pricing aligns with the low base rate of mid-term presidential departures in similar systems. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden incapacitating health event, an unanticipated snap election outcome, or a major internal AKP fracture, though none appear imminent based on recent developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
5% chance
$613,108 Vol.
$613,108 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Earn 3.25%
5% chance
$613,108 Vol.
$613,108 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan's current presidential term extends into 2028 under Turkey's constitution, with the next scheduled election in May of that year and no parliamentary vote or snap election mechanism likely to force an earlier exit before the end of 2026. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to him remaining in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting the incumbent's firm institutional control, weakened opposition through ongoing legal proceedings, and absence of any acute health, economic, or diplomatic crisis capable of triggering removal in the short term. This pricing aligns with the low base rate of mid-term presidential departures in similar systems. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden incapacitating health event, an unanticipated snap election outcome, or a major internal AKP fracture, though none appear imminent based on recent developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$613,108End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan's current presidential term extends into 2028 under Turkey's constitution, with the next scheduled election in May of that year and no parliamentary vote or snap election mechanism likely to force an earlier exit before the end of 2026. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to him remaining in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting the incumbent's firm institutional control, weakened opposition through ongoing legal proceedings, and absence of any acute health, economic, or diplomatic crisis capable of triggering removal in the short term. This pricing aligns with the low base rate of mid-term presidential departures in similar systems. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden incapacitating health event, an unanticipated snap election outcome, or a major internal AKP fracture, though none appear imminent based on recent developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$613,108End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Erdoğan's current presidential term extends into 2028 under Turkey's constitution, with the next scheduled election in May of that year and no parliamentary vote or snap election mechanism likely to force an earlier exit before the end of 2026. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to him remaining in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting the incumbent's firm institutional control, weakened opposition through ongoing legal proceedings, and absence of any acute health, economic, or diplomatic crisis capable of triggering removal in the short term. This pricing aligns with the low base rate of mid-term presidential departures in similar systems. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden incapacitating health event, an unanticipated snap election outcome, or a major internal AKP fracture, though none appear imminent based on recent developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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