President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains firmly in office through his current term ending in 2028, with no scheduled elections or constitutional triggers for removal before then. His Justice and Development Party alliance holds 326 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to call an early election that would activate an exception allowing a third presidential bid. Recent statements from ally Devlet Bahçeli and presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum have focused on securing that parliamentary vote for an April 2028 contest, framed as Erdoğan’s final candidacy. Key opposition figures, including Ekrem İmamoğlu, face ongoing legal proceedings and imprisonment that limit their eligibility and organizational strength. Polling shows the ruling party retaining a lead amid opposition fragmentation, while no major health, scandal, or institutional developments have emerged to alter the timeline. Traders price low probabilities of departure by late 2026 given these structural barriers and the absence of imminent catalysts.