**Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028, with Turkish officials and allies actively positioning for an April 2028 election that would allow him to seek another term under a constitutional exception triggered by a parliamentary vote.** His AKP-MHP alliance holds 326 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 needed for an early-election decision but sufficient to shape the timeline and block alternatives. Recent developments include cabinet changes interpreted as preparing institutional loyalty for a potential transition, ongoing legal actions against opposition figures such as jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and discussions of a new constitution. These factors, combined with the absence of scheduled votes or credible challenges before late 2027, underpin trader consensus that an exit before the end of 2026 remains unlikely while keeping later 2027–2028 probabilities more competitive.