Trader consensus on Polymarket spreads thinly across 280-359 X posts by Elon Musk from March 31 to April 7 (44% combined implied probability), mirroring his erratic recent pace—71 posts on March 27, 67 on March 26, after a 260-279 total the prior week (March 20-27). This volatility, driven by bursts around Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and viral cultural debates, creates a tight race among leading bins, with no clear frontrunner as traders balance sustained high engagement against possible dips during Easter weekend (April 5). Key differentiators include emerging news cycles on AI or politics that could spike volume, versus lulls from his packed executive schedule.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated300-319 12%
320-339 12%
260-279 12%
280-299 11%
$11,615 Vol.
$11,615 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
1%
140-159
2%
160-179
5%
180-199
5%
200-219
8%
220-239
8%
240-259
10%
260-279
12%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
10%
360-379
9%
380-399
9%
400-419
5%
420-439
6%
440-459
3%
460-479
3%
480-499
5%
500-519
5%
520-539
4%
540-559
2%
560-579
1%
580+
1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
260-279 12%
280-299 11%
$11,615 Vol.
$11,615 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
1%
140-159
2%
160-179
5%
180-199
5%
200-219
8%
220-239
8%
240-259
10%
260-279
12%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
10%
360-379
9%
380-399
9%
400-419
5%
420-439
6%
440-459
3%
460-479
3%
480-499
5%
500-519
5%
520-539
4%
540-559
2%
560-579
1%
580+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 28, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket spreads thinly across 280-359 X posts by Elon Musk from March 31 to April 7 (44% combined implied probability), mirroring his erratic recent pace—71 posts on March 27, 67 on March 26, after a 260-279 total the prior week (March 20-27). This volatility, driven by bursts around Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and viral cultural debates, creates a tight race among leading bins, with no clear frontrunner as traders balance sustained high engagement against possible dips during Easter weekend (April 5). Key differentiators include emerging news cycles on AI or politics that could spike volume, versus lulls from his packed executive schedule.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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