Trader consensus on Polymarket locks in 260-279 tweets for Elon Musk during March 20-27, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by his established pattern as X's most prolific user and owner, consistently averaging 35-45 posts per day in recent high-engagement weeks. This range aligns with verified data from the past month, including spikes around Tesla earnings calls, SpaceX milestones, and viral political exchanges that pushed weekly totals into the mid-260s without major outliers. The strong positioning underscores the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets, where real-money bets reward accurate historical modeling of his unyielding social media rhythm. Realistic upsets hinge on rare disruptions like a personal health event, extended platform downtime, or self-imposed break—scenarios with scant precedent amid his cultural dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated260-279 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,067,939 Vol.
$11,067,939 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
Yes
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500-519
No
520-539
No
540-559
No
560-579
No
580+
No
260-279 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$11,067,939 Vol.
$11,067,939 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
Yes
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500-519
No
520-539
No
540-559
No
560-579
No
580+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket locks in 260-279 tweets for Elon Musk during March 20-27, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by his established pattern as X's most prolific user and owner, consistently averaging 35-45 posts per day in recent high-engagement weeks. This range aligns with verified data from the past month, including spikes around Tesla earnings calls, SpaceX milestones, and viral political exchanges that pushed weekly totals into the mid-260s without major outliers. The strong positioning underscores the "wisdom of crowds" in prediction markets, where real-money bets reward accurate historical modeling of his unyielding social media rhythm. Realistic upsets hinge on rare disruptions like a personal health event, extended platform downtime, or self-imposed break—scenarios with scant precedent amid his cultural dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions