Gavin Newsom's 24.8% implied probability leads the wide-open Democratic 2028 presidential nomination market, driven by his executive record as California governor, national media engagements like recent podcasts, and early polls positioning him as the post-2024 frontrunner amid party regrouping after electoral losses. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3% on progressive grassroots energy and youth appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 5.7% reflects Georgia swing-state viability; Kamala Harris lingers at 5.1% despite her recent defeat, buoyed by residual infrastructure. Key differentiators include governing experience versus ideological purity or regional strength. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances, fundraising hauls, and DNC rules shaping the primary calendar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom 24.8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 5.7%
Kamala Harris 5.1%
$858,893,458 Vol.
$858,893,458 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
25%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
6%

Kamala Harris
5%

Josh Shapiro
4%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

Mark Kelly
3%

James Talarico
3%

J.B. Pritzker
2%

Andy Beshear
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Michelle Obama
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

LeBron James
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

John Fetterman
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

MrBeast
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Liz Cheney
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

George Clooney
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%
Gavin Newsom 24.8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%
Jon Ossoff 5.7%
Kamala Harris 5.1%
$858,893,458 Vol.
$858,893,458 Vol.

Gavin Newsom
25%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%

Jon Ossoff
6%

Kamala Harris
5%

Josh Shapiro
4%

Pete Buttigieg
4%

Mark Kelly
3%

James Talarico
3%

J.B. Pritzker
2%

Andy Beshear
2%

Jon Stewart
2%

Ruben Gallego
2%

Gretchen Whitmer
2%

Wes Moore
2%

Michelle Obama
1%

Rahm Emanuel
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Stephen A. Smith
1%

Gina Raimondo
1%

Cory Booker
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Phil Murphy
1%

LeBron James
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Chris Murphy
1%

John Fetterman
1%

Mark Cuban
1%

MrBeast
1%

Barack Obama
1%

Liz Cheney
1%

Andrew Yang
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Chelsea Clinton
1%

Roy Cooper
1%

Beto O’Rourke
1%

Jared Polis
1%

Hunter Biden
1%

Hillary Clinton
1%

Oprah Winfrey
1%

Raphael Warnock
1%

George Clooney
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Jasmine Crockett
1%

Bernie Sanders
1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Gavin Newsom's 24.8% implied probability leads the wide-open Democratic 2028 presidential nomination market, driven by his executive record as California governor, national media engagements like recent podcasts, and early polls positioning him as the post-2024 frontrunner amid party regrouping after electoral losses. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.3% on progressive grassroots energy and youth appeal, while Jon Ossoff's 5.7% reflects Georgia swing-state viability; Kamala Harris lingers at 5.1% despite her recent defeat, buoyed by residual infrastructure. Key differentiators include governing experience versus ideological purity or regional strength. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm performances, fundraising hauls, and DNC rules shaping the primary calendar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions