No release by February 28 89%
February 28 2.4%
February 25 2.1%
February 26 1.9%
$267,393 Vol.
$267,393 Vol.
February 10
$19,308 Vol.
<1%
February 11
$8,496 Vol.
<1%
February 12
$7,775 Vol.
<1%
February 13
$6,561 Vol.
<1%
February 14
$5,851 Vol.
1%
February 15
$2,503 Vol.
1%
February 16
$2,332 Vol.
<1%
February 17
$8,754 Vol.
1%
February 18
$2,637 Vol.
2%
February 19
$2,600 Vol.
1%
February 20
$2,654 Vol.
1%
February 21
$2,538 Vol.
1%
February 22
$2,226 Vol.
1%
February 23
$2,376 Vol.
2%
February 24
$2,530 Vol.
1%
February 25
$2,492 Vol.
2%
February 26
$2,705 Vol.
2%
February 27
$2,529 Vol.
1%
February 28
$3,049 Vol.
2%
No release by February 28
$38,693 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to "No release by February 28" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is not made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Anthropic's Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g., Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Feb 4, 2026, 5:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
No release by February 28 89%
February 28 2.4%
February 25 2.1%
February 26 1.9%
$267,393 Vol.
$267,393 Vol.
February 10
<1%
February 11
<1%
February 12
<1%
February 13
<1%
February 14
1%
February 15
1%
February 16
<1%
February 17
1%
February 18
2%
February 19
1%
February 20
1%
February 21
1%
February 22
1%
February 23
2%
February 24
1%
February 25
2%
February 26
2%
February 27
1%
February 28
2%
No release by February 28
89%
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Beware of external links.