Morena maintains a projected plurality in the Campeche state congress race for the June 2027 election, supported by recent polling averages showing around 40% popular vote support and 16 seats, though Movimiento Ciudadano follows closely at roughly 25-30% and 10 seats. Early campaign preparations, including INE council installations and internal party registrations, keep the contest fluid as opposition parties position candidates and Morena manages internal divisions over gubernatorial influence. This balance of established Morena advantages against competitive MC performance and undecided voter blocs sustains tight implied probabilities across major parties ahead of candidate finalization and the formal campaign period.