Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam sharply criticized Hezbollah on March 23 for instigating war with Israel while pledging no retreat from disarmament efforts, following the group's rocket attacks on northern Israel on March 1—the first since the November 2024 ceasefire—which prompted Israeli airstrikes and a government ban on Hezbollah's military activities. Hezbollah rejected Lebanon's February announcement of a four-month timeline for the second phase of disarmament north of the Litani River, labeling it a 'grave sin.' With no official announcement from Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem or leadership committing to relinquish arms per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Israeli forces maintain operations in southern Lebanon amid doubts over the Lebanese Armed Forces' enforcement capacity. Upcoming U.S. aid benchmarks in the FY26 NDAA by June 30 could pressure progress.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?
¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?
$923,945 Vol.
31 mar 2026
31 de diciembre
23%
$923,945 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$17,352 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam sharply criticized Hezbollah on March 23 for instigating war with Israel while pledging no retreat from disarmament efforts, following the group's rocket attacks on northern Israel on March 1—the first since the November 2024 ceasefire—which prompted Israeli airstrikes and a government ban on Hezbollah's military activities. Hezbollah rejected Lebanon's February announcement of a four-month timeline for the second phase of disarmament north of the Litani River, labeling it a 'grave sin.' With no official announcement from Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem or leadership committing to relinquish arms per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Israeli forces maintain operations in southern Lebanon amid doubts over the Lebanese Armed Forces' enforcement capacity. Upcoming U.S. aid benchmarks in the FY26 NDAA by June 30 could pressure progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volumen
$923,945Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam sharply criticized Hezbollah on March 23 for instigating war with Israel while pledging no retreat from disarmament efforts, following the group's rocket attacks on northern Israel on March 1—the first since the November 2024 ceasefire—which prompted Israeli airstrikes and a government ban on Hezbollah's military activities. Hezbollah rejected Lebanon's February announcement of a four-month timeline for the second phase of disarmament north of the Litani River, labeling it a 'grave sin.' With no official announcement from Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem or leadership committing to relinquish arms per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Israeli forces maintain operations in southern Lebanon amid doubts over the Lebanese Armed Forces' enforcement capacity. Upcoming U.S. aid benchmarks in the FY26 NDAA by June 30 could pressure progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volumen
$923,945Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam sharply criticized Hezbollah on March 23 for instigating war with Israel while pledging no retreat from disarmament efforts, following the group's rocket attacks on northern Israel on March 1—the first since the November 2024 ceasefire—which prompted Israeli airstrikes and a government ban on Hezbollah's military activities. Hezbollah rejected Lebanon's February announcement of a four-month timeline for the second phase of disarmament north of the Litani River, labeling it a 'grave sin.' With no official announcement from Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem or leadership committing to relinquish arms per UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Israeli forces maintain operations in southern Lebanon amid doubts over the Lebanese Armed Forces' enforcement capacity. Upcoming U.S. aid benchmarks in the FY26 NDAA by June 30 could pressure progress.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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