A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, requires the group to withdraw fighters and weapons north of the Litani River, enabling Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL deployment to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701's provisions against armed non-state actors in southern Lebanon. Israel's prior military operations, including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September, have weakened the group's command structure and arsenal. Yet Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has long rejected full disarmament, and initial compliance reports show sporadic violations like drones and rockets. Traders weigh fragile implementation amid diplomatic pressures on Lebanon's government, with no-confidence risks and potential escalation signals as key upcoming factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?
¿Hezbolá se desarmará por...?
$851,276 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 de marzo
<1%
31 de diciembre
23%
$851,276 Vol.
31 de marzo
$835,339 Vol.
<1%
31 de diciembre
$15,937 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, requires the group to withdraw fighters and weapons north of the Litani River, enabling Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL deployment to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701's provisions against armed non-state actors in southern Lebanon. Israel's prior military operations, including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September, have weakened the group's command structure and arsenal. Yet Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has long rejected full disarmament, and initial compliance reports show sporadic violations like drones and rockets. Traders weigh fragile implementation amid diplomatic pressures on Lebanon's government, with no-confidence risks and potential escalation signals as key upcoming factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
Volumen
$851,276Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, requires the group to withdraw fighters and weapons north of the Litani River, enabling Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL deployment to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701's provisions against armed non-state actors in southern Lebanon. Israel's prior military operations, including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September, have weakened the group's command structure and arsenal. Yet Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has long rejected full disarmament, and initial compliance reports show sporadic violations like drones and rockets. Traders weigh fragile implementation amid diplomatic pressures on Lebanon's government, with no-confidence risks and potential escalation signals as key upcoming factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volumen
$851,276Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, requires the group to withdraw fighters and weapons north of the Litani River, enabling Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL deployment to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701's provisions against armed non-state actors in southern Lebanon. Israel's prior military operations, including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September, have weakened the group's command structure and arsenal. Yet Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has long rejected full disarmament, and initial compliance reports show sporadic violations like drones and rockets. Traders weigh fragile implementation amid diplomatic pressures on Lebanon's government, with no-confidence risks and potential escalation signals as key upcoming factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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