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Tech·IA

¿Qué empresa tendrá el mejor modelo de IA para matemáticas el 31 de marzo?

Market icon
Tech·IA

¿Qué empresa tendrá el mejor modelo de IA para matemáticas el 31 de marzo?

Mar 31

Mar 31

OpenAI 99.3%

xAI <1%

Google <1%

DeepSeek <1%

Polymarket

$472,975 Vol.

OpenAI 99.3%

xAI <1%

Google <1%

DeepSeek <1%

Polymarket

$472,975 Vol.

Market icon

OpenAI

$58,495 Vol.

99%

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xAI

$66,258 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Google

$128,996 Vol.

<1%

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DeepSeek

$73,066 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Anthropic

$58,796 Vol.

<1%

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Z.ai

$24,738 Vol.

<1%

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Mistral

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Alibaba

$31,587 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$31,038 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI commands a 99.2% implied probability in trader consensus for the best AI model on math benchmarks by March 31, propelled by its o1 series' record-shattering performance since September 2024, including 94.1% accuracy on the rigorous MATH dataset and 83.3% on AIME 2024 competition problems—metrics that eclipse rivals like Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet (around 80% on MATH) and Google's Gemini models. This dominance stems from o1's advanced chain-of-thought reasoning, enabling superior handling of multi-step math proofs and Olympiad-level challenges, with no credible announcements of surpassing capabilities from competitors in the past 30 days. Scenarios challenging this include an unexpected model release from DeepMind or xAI with validated benchmark gains, or shifts in evaluation criteria, though AI development timelines typically preclude such shifts by quarter-end.

OpenAI commands a 99.2% implied probability in trader consensus for the best AI model on math benchmarks by March 31, propelled by its o1 series' record-shattering performance since September 2024, including 94.1% accuracy on the rigorous MATH dataset and 83.3% on AIME 2024 competition problems—metrics that eclipse rivals like Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet (around 80% on MATH) and Google's Gemini models. This dominance stems from o1's advanced chain-of-thought reasoning, enabling superior handling of multi-step math proofs and Olympiad-level challenges, with no credible announcements of surpassing capabilities from competitors in the past 30 days. Scenarios challenging this include an unexpected model release from DeepMind or xAI with validated benchmark gains, or shifts in evaluation criteria, though AI development timelines typically preclude such shifts by quarter-end.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI commands a 99.2% implied probability in trader consensus for the best AI model on math benchmarks by March 31, propelled by its o1 series' record-shattering performance since September 2024, including 94.1% accuracy on the rigorous MATH dataset and 83.3% on AIME 2024 competition problems—metrics that eclipse rivals like Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet (around 80% on MATH) and Google's Gemini models. This dominance stems from o1's advanced chain-of-thought reasoning, enabling superior handling of multi-step math proofs and Olympiad-level challenges, with no credible announcements of surpassing capabilities from competitors in the past 30 days. Scenarios challenging this include an unexpected model release from DeepMind or xAI with validated benchmark gains, or shifts in evaluation criteria, though AI development timelines typically preclude such shifts by quarter-end.

OpenAI commands a 99.2% implied probability in trader consensus for the best AI model on math benchmarks by March 31, propelled by its o1 series' record-shattering performance since September 2024, including 94.1% accuracy on the rigorous MATH dataset and 83.3% on AIME 2024 competition problems—metrics that eclipse rivals like Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet (around 80% on MATH) and Google's Gemini models. This dominance stems from o1's advanced chain-of-thought reasoning, enabling superior handling of multi-step math proofs and Olympiad-level challenges, with no credible announcements of surpassing capabilities from competitors in the past 30 days. Scenarios challenging this include an unexpected model release from DeepMind or xAI with validated benchmark gains, or shifts in evaluation criteria, though AI development timelines typically preclude such shifts by quarter-end.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué empresa tendrá el mejor modelo de IA para matemáticas el 31 de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "OpenAI" con 99%, seguido de "xAI" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 99¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué empresa tendrá el mejor modelo de IA para matemáticas el 31 de marzo?" ha generado $473K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 12, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué empresa tendrá el mejor modelo de IA para matemáticas el 31 de marzo?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué empresa tendrá el mejor modelo de IA para matemáticas el 31 de marzo?" es "OpenAI" con 99%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "xAI" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué empresa tendrá el mejor modelo de IA para matemáticas el 31 de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.