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¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela por...?

Market icon

¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela por...?

$87,408,772 Vol.

Oct 31, 2025
Polymarket

$87,408,772 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de septiembre

$817,622 Vol.

No

24 de octubre

$779,617 Vol.

No

27 de octubre

$696,878 Vol.

No

31 de octubre

$6,816,571 Vol.

No

1 de noviembre

$326,121 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 2 de noviembre

$471,084 Vol.

No

3 de noviembre

$229,366 Vol.

No

5 de noviembre

$267,724 Vol.

No

7 de noviembre

$1,504,728 Vol.

No

14 de noviembre

$1,602,553 Vol.

No

21 de noviembre

$841,108 Vol.

No

23 de noviembre

$55,682 Vol.

No

24 de noviembre

$357,095 Vol.

No

25 de noviembre

$174,897 Vol.

No

26 de noviembre

$292,785 Vol.

No

27 de noviembre

$401,690 Vol.

No

30 de noviembre

$9,188,344 Vol.

No

Título del grupo: 5 de diciembre

$731,935 Vol.

No

9 de diciembre

$310,647 Vol.

No

15 de diciembre

$3,803,403 Vol.

No

23 de diciembre

$941,599 Vol.

No

31 de diciembre

$51,073,021 Vol.

No

15 de enero de 2026

$3,298,466 Vol.

31 de enero de 2026

$931,284 Vol.

31 de marzo de 2026

$1,444,954 Vol.

30 de junio de 2026

$21,402 Vol.

31 de diciembre de 2026

$28,198 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between August 21, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$87,408,772
Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 5, 2025, 12:58 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between August 21, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15 de enero de 2026" at 100%, followed by "31 de enero de 2026" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela por...?" has generated $87.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela por...?," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela por...?" is "15 de enero de 2026" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de enero de 2026" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.