The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, delivered via mediators including Pakistan, Oman, and Egypt around March 25, was swiftly rejected by Tehran, which countered with its own demands for a complete halt to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, guarantees against future attacks, and resolution of nuclear and missile issues. Ongoing military actions—including U.S. strikes degrading Iranian capabilities and Iranian missile launches—along with Houthi warnings in Yemen, underscore hardened diplomatic postures despite backchannel efforts. Gulf states remain cautious amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, leaving trader consensus skeptical of near-term de-escalation without major concessions or scheduled talks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán por...?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán por...?
$61,609,225 Vol.
31 de marzo
2%
7 de abril
8%
15 de abril
18%
30 de abril
32%
31 de mayo
48%
30 de junio
59%
31 de diciembre
75%
$61,609,225 Vol.
31 de marzo
$38,896,866 Vol.
2%
7 de abril
$1,411,791 Vol.
8%
15 de abril
$5,996,681 Vol.
18%
30 de abril
$6,692,097 Vol.
32%
31 de mayo
$2,260,501 Vol.
48%
30 de junio
$2,347,302 Vol.
59%
31 de diciembre
$513,062 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, delivered via mediators including Pakistan, Oman, and Egypt around March 25, was swiftly rejected by Tehran, which countered with its own demands for a complete halt to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, guarantees against future attacks, and resolution of nuclear and missile issues. Ongoing military actions—including U.S. strikes degrading Iranian capabilities and Iranian missile launches—along with Houthi warnings in Yemen, underscore hardened diplomatic postures despite backchannel efforts. Gulf states remain cautious amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, leaving trader consensus skeptical of near-term de-escalation without major concessions or scheduled talks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volumen
$61,609,225Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, delivered via mediators including Pakistan, Oman, and Egypt around March 25, was swiftly rejected by Tehran, which countered with its own demands for a complete halt to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, guarantees against future attacks, and resolution of nuclear and missile issues. Ongoing military actions—including U.S. strikes degrading Iranian capabilities and Iranian missile launches—along with Houthi warnings in Yemen, underscore hardened diplomatic postures despite backchannel efforts. Gulf states remain cautious amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, leaving trader consensus skeptical of near-term de-escalation without major concessions or scheduled talks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$61,609,225Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran, delivered via mediators including Pakistan, Oman, and Egypt around March 25, was swiftly rejected by Tehran, which countered with its own demands for a complete halt to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, guarantees against future attacks, and resolution of nuclear and missile issues. Ongoing military actions—including U.S. strikes degrading Iranian capabilities and Iranian missile launches—along with Houthi warnings in Yemen, underscore hardened diplomatic postures despite backchannel efforts. Gulf states remain cautious amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, leaving trader consensus skeptical of near-term de-escalation without major concessions or scheduled talks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes