Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury—now in its fifth week with recent hits on Iranian steel plants, pharmaceutical facilities, and Bandar Abbas piers—no US ground forces have entered Iran as of April 3, 2026, per Pentagon statements. President Trump's April 2 address claimed military objectives near completion within two to three weeks, potentially obviating boots-on-the-ground needs after degrading Tehran's air defenses, navy, and nuclear sites. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket prices "December 31" at 75% implied probability, fueled by 50,000+ US troops in the region, Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments, and preparations for coastal operations at Kharg Island or Hormuz amid IRGC threats and Iranian missile strikes causing US casualties. Ongoing retaliations and diplomatic stalemate keep escalation risks elevated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Las fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán por...?
¿Las fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán por...?
$102,469,963 Vol.
3 mar 2026
31 de marzo
<1%
30 de abril
67%
31 de diciembre
75%
$102,469,963 Vol.
31 de marzo
$71,697,010 Vol.
<1%
30 de abril
$19,874,491 Vol.
67%
31 de diciembre
$8,828,568 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury—now in its fifth week with recent hits on Iranian steel plants, pharmaceutical facilities, and Bandar Abbas piers—no US ground forces have entered Iran as of April 3, 2026, per Pentagon statements. President Trump's April 2 address claimed military objectives near completion within two to three weeks, potentially obviating boots-on-the-ground needs after degrading Tehran's air defenses, navy, and nuclear sites. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket prices "December 31" at 75% implied probability, fueled by 50,000+ US troops in the region, Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments, and preparations for coastal operations at Kharg Island or Hormuz amid IRGC threats and Iranian missile strikes causing US casualties. Ongoing retaliations and diplomatic stalemate keep escalation risks elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volumen
$102,469,963Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury—now in its fifth week with recent hits on Iranian steel plants, pharmaceutical facilities, and Bandar Abbas piers—no US ground forces have entered Iran as of April 3, 2026, per Pentagon statements. President Trump's April 2 address claimed military objectives near completion within two to three weeks, potentially obviating boots-on-the-ground needs after degrading Tehran's air defenses, navy, and nuclear sites. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket prices "December 31" at 75% implied probability, fueled by 50,000+ US troops in the region, Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments, and preparations for coastal operations at Kharg Island or Hormuz amid IRGC threats and Iranian missile strikes causing US casualties. Ongoing retaliations and diplomatic stalemate keep escalation risks elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$102,469,963Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury—now in its fifth week with recent hits on Iranian steel plants, pharmaceutical facilities, and Bandar Abbas piers—no US ground forces have entered Iran as of April 3, 2026, per Pentagon statements. President Trump's April 2 address claimed military objectives near completion within two to three weeks, potentially obviating boots-on-the-ground needs after degrading Tehran's air defenses, navy, and nuclear sites. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket prices "December 31" at 75% implied probability, fueled by 50,000+ US troops in the region, Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments, and preparations for coastal operations at Kharg Island or Hormuz amid IRGC threats and Iranian missile strikes causing US casualties. Ongoing retaliations and diplomatic stalemate keep escalation risks elevated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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