Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at near-certainty odds, reflecting her dominant position in the safe urban Toronto riding of University—Rosedale, vacated by Chrystia Freeland's resignation. Recent polls project her at 60-64% support, far ahead of Conservative Don Hodgson (around 23%) and NDP's Serena Purdy (10%), bolstered by Martin's profile as a respected family physician and health advocate amid strong Liberal Party mobilization. Advance polls opened April 3 with high-profile endorsements from leader Mark Carney on April 4, signaling robust turnout efforts in this low-stakes by-election. While commanding, an upset could arise from a late scandal, suppressed Liberal turnout, or unexpected opposition surge before April 13 election day, though historical precedents in similar strongholds make such shifts unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoUniversity—Rosedale By-Election Winner
University—Rosedale By-Election Winner
Danielle Martin 99.4%
Don Hodgson <1%
Andy D’Andrea <1%
Imran Khan <1%
$52,203 Vol.
$52,203 Vol.
Danielle Martin
99%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Imran Khan
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
Danielle Martin 99.4%
Don Hodgson <1%
Andy D’Andrea <1%
Imran Khan <1%
$52,203 Vol.
$52,203 Vol.
Danielle Martin
99%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Imran Khan
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at near-certainty odds, reflecting her dominant position in the safe urban Toronto riding of University—Rosedale, vacated by Chrystia Freeland's resignation. Recent polls project her at 60-64% support, far ahead of Conservative Don Hodgson (around 23%) and NDP's Serena Purdy (10%), bolstered by Martin's profile as a respected family physician and health advocate amid strong Liberal Party mobilization. Advance polls opened April 3 with high-profile endorsements from leader Mark Carney on April 4, signaling robust turnout efforts in this low-stakes by-election. While commanding, an upset could arise from a late scandal, suppressed Liberal turnout, or unexpected opposition surge before April 13 election day, though historical precedents in similar strongholds make such shifts unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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