Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to 0.5–0.9% quarter-over-quarter GDP growth for South Korea's Q1 2026, driven by February's record 2.5% industrial production surge—led by 28% semiconductor output gains—and March's explosive 48.3% year-over-year export boom to $86 billion, lifting nowcasts like ING's 0.6% estimate from Q4 2025's contraction. Closely matched odds for 2.0–2.4% (25%) and 1.5–1.9% (24.5%) highlight competitive dynamics, with export strength clashing against persistent construction weakness and fiscal support limits as key differentiators; lower bins price recession risks from energy shocks. Bank of Korea's advance estimate on April 28 will be pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de Corea del Sur en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB de Corea del Sur en el primer trimestre de 2026?
2,0–2,4% 31%
2,5%+ 16%
1,0–1,4% 11.0%
1,5–1,9% 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 abr 2026
<0%
15%
0.0–0.4%
3%
0,5–0,9%
35%
1,0–1,4%
11%
1,5–1,9%
25%
2,0–2,4%
25%
2,5%+
16%
2,0–2,4% 31%
2,5%+ 16%
1,0–1,4% 11.0%
1,5–1,9% 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 abr 2026
<0%
$0 Vol.
15%
0.0–0.4%
$0 Vol.
3%
0,5–0,9%
$0 Vol.
35%
1,0–1,4%
$0 Vol.
11%
1,5–1,9%
$338 Vol.
25%
2,0–2,4%
$0 Vol.
25%
2,5%+
$6,234 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to 0.5–0.9% quarter-over-quarter GDP growth for South Korea's Q1 2026, driven by February's record 2.5% industrial production surge—led by 28% semiconductor output gains—and March's explosive 48.3% year-over-year export boom to $86 billion, lifting nowcasts like ING's 0.6% estimate from Q4 2025's contraction. Closely matched odds for 2.0–2.4% (25%) and 1.5–1.9% (24.5%) highlight competitive dynamics, with export strength clashing against persistent construction weakness and fiscal support limits as key differentiators; lower bins price recession risks from energy shocks. Bank of Korea's advance estimate on April 28 will be pivotal.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$6,571Fecha de finalización
23 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to 0.5–0.9% quarter-over-quarter GDP growth for South Korea's Q1 2026, driven by February's record 2.5% industrial production surge—led by 28% semiconductor output gains—and March's explosive 48.3% year-over-year export boom to $86 billion, lifting nowcasts like ING's 0.6% estimate from Q4 2025's contraction. Closely matched odds for 2.0–2.4% (25%) and 1.5–1.9% (24.5%) highlight competitive dynamics, with export strength clashing against persistent construction weakness and fiscal support limits as key differentiators; lower bins price recession risks from energy shocks. Bank of Korea's advance estimate on April 28 will be pivotal.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$6,571Fecha de finalización
23 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 33.5% implied probability to 0.5–0.9% quarter-over-quarter GDP growth for South Korea's Q1 2026, driven by February's record 2.5% industrial production surge—led by 28% semiconductor output gains—and March's explosive 48.3% year-over-year export boom to $86 billion, lifting nowcasts like ING's 0.6% estimate from Q4 2025's contraction. Closely matched odds for 2.0–2.4% (25%) and 1.5–1.9% (24.5%) highlight competitive dynamics, with export strength clashing against persistent construction weakness and fiscal support limits as key differentiators; lower bins price recession risks from energy shocks. Bank of Korea's advance estimate on April 28 will be pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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