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¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

Market icon

¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 61%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 3.7%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 3.6%

Polymarket

$3,487,953 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría 61%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel 3.7%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido 3.6%

Polymarket

$3,487,953 Vol.

Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría

$30,932 Vol.

61%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$22,150 Vol.

18%

Netanyahu - Primer Ministro de Israel

$1,014,538 Vol.

4%

Starmer - Primer Ministro del Reino Unido

$561,994 Vol.

4%

Takaichi - Primera ministra de Japón

$355,319 Vol.

2%

Trump - Presidente de EE. UU.

$216,903 Vol.

2%

Putin - Presidente de Rusia

$358,498 Vol.

2%

Ninguno antes de 2027

$21,326 Vol.

2%

Petro - Presidente de Colombia

$16,252 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente de Ucrania

$18,668 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente de Francia

$74,099 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente de Palestina

$87,622 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretario General del PCCh

$44,464 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primer ministro español

$22,789 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primer Ministro de Francia

$70,471 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente de Siria

$45,718 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente de Brasil

$74,250 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Presidenta interina de Venezuela

$27,585 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Presidente de Turquía

$78,936 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo de Corea del Norte

$27,456 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primer Ministro de Australia

$61,683 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Gobernador de California

$117,870 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente de Argentina

$40,202 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Canciller alemán

$31,308 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidenta de México

$66,922 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leads trader consensus at 60% implied probability of exiting power before 2027, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—now just 11 days away—with youth mobilization and economic discontent fueling opposition gains. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting escalated U.S. pressure under the Trump administration demanding his removal amid ongoing economic crisis and speculation of Castro family succession talks. Netanyahu and Starmer tie at 3.6%, tied to Netanyahu's coalition maneuvers staving off early Knesset elections amid regional conflicts and Starmer's plummeting UK approval ratings from by-election losses. Hungary's vote looms as the key near-term catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,487,953
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leads trader consensus at 60% implied probability of exiting power before 2027, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—now just 11 days away—with youth mobilization and economic discontent fueling opposition gains. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting escalated U.S. pressure under the Trump administration demanding his removal amid ongoing economic crisis and speculation of Castro family succession talks. Netanyahu and Starmer tie at 3.6%, tied to Netanyahu's coalition maneuvers staving off early Knesset elections amid regional conflicts and Starmer's plummeting UK approval ratings from by-election losses. Hungary's vote looms as the key near-term catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,487,953
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 25 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 61%, seguido de "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 61¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" ha generado $3.5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?", explora los 25 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" es "Orbán - Primer ministro de Hungría" con 61%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El próximo líder fuera del poder antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.