Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a structurally dominant position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district, where the R+21 partisan voting index and rural-suburban electorate have delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Major forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, reflecting Alford’s established name recognition from his prior career and early fundraising advantage exceeding $900,000. The Democratic primary on August 4 features several low-profile candidates with limited resources and no prominent challengers emerging after the March filing deadline. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects these fundamentals, though a major scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected primary upset, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMO-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MO-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$30,403 Vol.
$30,403 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Demócrata
7%
$30,403 Vol.
$30,403 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$16,483 Vol.
94%
Partido Demócrata
$13,920 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a structurally dominant position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district, where the R+21 partisan voting index and rural-suburban electorate have delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Major forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, reflecting Alford’s established name recognition from his prior career and early fundraising advantage exceeding $900,000. The Democratic primary on August 4 features several low-profile candidates with limited resources and no prominent challengers emerging after the March filing deadline. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects these fundamentals, though a major scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected primary upset, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$30,403Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a structurally dominant position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district, where the R+21 partisan voting index and rural-suburban electorate have delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Major forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, reflecting Alford’s established name recognition from his prior career and early fundraising advantage exceeding $900,000. The Democratic primary on August 4 features several low-profile candidates with limited resources and no prominent challengers emerging after the March filing deadline. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects these fundamentals, though a major scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected primary upset, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$30,403Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a structurally dominant position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district, where the R+21 partisan voting index and rural-suburban electorate have delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Major forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, reflecting Alford’s established name recognition from his prior career and early fundraising advantage exceeding $900,000. The Democratic primary on August 4 features several low-profile candidates with limited resources and no prominent challengers emerging after the March filing deadline. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects these fundamentals, though a major scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected primary upset, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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