Traders overwhelmingly back military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (92.5% implied probability), driven by the absence of de-escalatory signals since Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites, which followed Tehran's October 1 barrage of 180+ missiles. Iran reported limited damage but vowed retaliation without launching direct strikes, amid persistent proxy engagements via Hezbollah—despite a fragile November 26 ceasefire—and Houthi Red Sea attacks. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire negotiations have emerged in the past 30 days, sustaining trader consensus on prolonged tensions. Potential challengers include unexpected US-Iran talks post-January inauguration, mutual stand-down announcements, or verified de-escalation in proxy conflicts, though these face high barriers given entrenched regional hostilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAcción militar hasta el 31 de marzo 94%
31 de marzo 3.2%
30 de marzo 1.7%
29 de marzo 1.4%
$2,533,580 Vol.
$2,533,580 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26 de marzo
<1%
27 de marzo
<1%
28 de marzo
1%
29 de marzo
1%
30 de marzo
2%
31 de marzo
3%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo
94%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo 94%
31 de marzo 3.2%
30 de marzo 1.7%
29 de marzo 1.4%
$2,533,580 Vol.
$2,533,580 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26 de marzo
$326,382 Vol.
<1%
27 de marzo
$325,179 Vol.
<1%
28 de marzo
$304,961 Vol.
1%
29 de marzo
$263,460 Vol.
1%
30 de marzo
$273,643 Vol.
2%
31 de marzo
$359,029 Vol.
3%
Acción militar hasta el 31 de marzo
$548,476 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders overwhelmingly back military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (92.5% implied probability), driven by the absence of de-escalatory signals since Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites, which followed Tehran's October 1 barrage of 180+ missiles. Iran reported limited damage but vowed retaliation without launching direct strikes, amid persistent proxy engagements via Hezbollah—despite a fragile November 26 ceasefire—and Houthi Red Sea attacks. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire negotiations have emerged in the past 30 days, sustaining trader consensus on prolonged tensions. Potential challengers include unexpected US-Iran talks post-January inauguration, mutual stand-down announcements, or verified de-escalation in proxy conflicts, though these face high barriers given entrenched regional hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,533,580Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders overwhelmingly back military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (92.5% implied probability), driven by the absence of de-escalatory signals since Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites, which followed Tehran's October 1 barrage of 180+ missiles. Iran reported limited damage but vowed retaliation without launching direct strikes, amid persistent proxy engagements via Hezbollah—despite a fragile November 26 ceasefire—and Houthi Red Sea attacks. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire negotiations have emerged in the past 30 days, sustaining trader consensus on prolonged tensions. Potential challengers include unexpected US-Iran talks post-January inauguration, mutual stand-down announcements, or verified de-escalation in proxy conflicts, though these face high barriers given entrenched regional hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,533,580Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (92.5% implied probability), driven by the absence of de-escalatory signals since Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites, which followed Tehran's October 1 barrage of 180+ missiles. Iran reported limited damage but vowed retaliation without launching direct strikes, amid persistent proxy engagements via Hezbollah—despite a fragile November 26 ceasefire—and Houthi Red Sea attacks. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire negotiations have emerged in the past 30 days, sustaining trader consensus on prolonged tensions. Potential challengers include unexpected US-Iran talks post-January inauguration, mutual stand-down announcements, or verified de-escalation in proxy conflicts, though these face high barriers given entrenched regional hostilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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