US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities like Khondab reactor and natural gas infrastructure, as the conflict—now one month old since surprise attacks began on February 28—shows no signs of abating. Recent escalations include Israel's strikes on Tehran and Isfahan reported March 27, Iranian missile barrages injuring US troops, and threats to expand operations unless Tehran agrees to a US ceasefire proposal involving Strait of Hormuz access and missile program curbs. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty recognition while reviewing terms via mediators; White House warnings of further action highlight diplomatic fragility. Traders weigh de-escalation via negotiations against risks of broader regional involvement, with no confirmed end date amid over 10,000 US strikes degrading IRGC capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$191,042 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
2%
March 31
4%
15 de abril
27%
30 de abril
49%
31 de mayo
77%
30 de junio
77%
$191,042 Vol.
March 29
$27,535 Vol.
1%
March 30
$22,092 Vol.
2%
March 31
$77,523 Vol.
4%
15 de abril
$3,077 Vol.
27%
30 de abril
$235 Vol.
49%
31 de mayo
$1,556 Vol.
77%
30 de junio
$5 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities like Khondab reactor and natural gas infrastructure, as the conflict—now one month old since surprise attacks began on February 28—shows no signs of abating. Recent escalations include Israel's strikes on Tehran and Isfahan reported March 27, Iranian missile barrages injuring US troops, and threats to expand operations unless Tehran agrees to a US ceasefire proposal involving Strait of Hormuz access and missile program curbs. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty recognition while reviewing terms via mediators; White House warnings of further action highlight diplomatic fragility. Traders weigh de-escalation via negotiations against risks of broader regional involvement, with no confirmed end date amid over 10,000 US strikes degrading IRGC capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volumen
$191,042Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities like Khondab reactor and natural gas infrastructure, as the conflict—now one month old since surprise attacks began on February 28—shows no signs of abating. Recent escalations include Israel's strikes on Tehran and Isfahan reported March 27, Iranian missile barrages injuring US troops, and threats to expand operations unless Tehran agrees to a US ceasefire proposal involving Strait of Hormuz access and missile program curbs. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty recognition while reviewing terms via mediators; White House warnings of further action highlight diplomatic fragility. Traders weigh de-escalation via negotiations against risks of broader regional involvement, with no confirmed end date amid over 10,000 US strikes degrading IRGC capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$191,042Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities like Khondab reactor and natural gas infrastructure, as the conflict—now one month old since surprise attacks began on February 28—shows no signs of abating. Recent escalations include Israel's strikes on Tehran and Isfahan reported March 27, Iranian missile barrages injuring US troops, and threats to expand operations unless Tehran agrees to a US ceasefire proposal involving Strait of Hormuz access and missile program curbs. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty recognition while reviewing terms via mediators; White House warnings of further action highlight diplomatic fragility. Traders weigh de-escalation via negotiations against risks of broader regional involvement, with no confirmed end date amid over 10,000 US strikes degrading IRGC capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes