The US-Israel war with Iran, ignited by joint airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains in its intense fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. Over the past 48 hours, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities in Yazd and Arak alongside steel industry sites, while Houthis fired a missile at Israel—intercepted—and Iran attacked a US airbase in Saudi Arabia, causing new American casualties. Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal three days ago, issuing a counterproposal amid stalled diplomacy. Hezbollah has ramped up attacks on northern Israel. Traders weigh persistent escalation against fragile talks, with resolution hinging on 14 consecutive days of no reported direct military action between principals, excluding proxies. Israel signals intensified operations ahead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
$8,148,330 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
31 de marzo
1%
15 de abril
15%
7 de abril
6%
30 de abril
35%
15 de mayo
44%
30 de junio
63%
31 de diciembre
83%
$8,148,330 Vol.
31 de marzo
$4,286,850 Vol.
1%
15 de abril
$913,757 Vol.
15%
7 de abril
$95,735 Vol.
6%
30 de abril
$667,463 Vol.
35%
15 de mayo
$1,176,273 Vol.
44%
30 de junio
$807,045 Vol.
63%
31 de diciembre
$201,211 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war with Iran, ignited by joint airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains in its intense fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. Over the past 48 hours, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities in Yazd and Arak alongside steel industry sites, while Houthis fired a missile at Israel—intercepted—and Iran attacked a US airbase in Saudi Arabia, causing new American casualties. Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal three days ago, issuing a counterproposal amid stalled diplomacy. Hezbollah has ramped up attacks on northern Israel. Traders weigh persistent escalation against fragile talks, with resolution hinging on 14 consecutive days of no reported direct military action between principals, excluding proxies. Israel signals intensified operations ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercado abierto: Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volumen
$8,148,330Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war with Iran, ignited by joint airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains in its intense fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. Over the past 48 hours, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities in Yazd and Arak alongside steel industry sites, while Houthis fired a missile at Israel—intercepted—and Iran attacked a US airbase in Saudi Arabia, causing new American casualties. Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal three days ago, issuing a counterproposal amid stalled diplomacy. Hezbollah has ramped up attacks on northern Israel. Traders weigh persistent escalation against fragile talks, with resolution hinging on 14 consecutive days of no reported direct military action between principals, excluding proxies. Israel signals intensified operations ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volumen
$8,148,330Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel war with Iran, ignited by joint airstrikes on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains in its intense fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. Over the past 48 hours, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities in Yazd and Arak alongside steel industry sites, while Houthis fired a missile at Israel—intercepted—and Iran attacked a US airbase in Saudi Arabia, causing new American casualties. Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal three days ago, issuing a counterproposal amid stalled diplomacy. Hezbollah has ramped up attacks on northern Israel. Traders weigh persistent escalation against fragile talks, with resolution hinging on 14 consecutive days of no reported direct military action between principals, excluding proxies. Israel signals intensified operations ahead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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