Market icon
Geopolítica·Régimen De Irán

¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Régimen De Irán

¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$88,298 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$88,298 Vol.

Polymarket

March 22

$19,093 Vol.

<1%

March 23

$7,783 Vol.

1%

March 24

$3,378 Vol.

2%

March 25

$26,264 Vol.

3%

March 26

$2,551 Vol.

7%

March 27

$13,160 Vol.

9%

March 28

$3,416 Vol.

11%

March 29

$4,717 Vol.

12%

March 30

$7,370 Vol.

11%

March 31

$566 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$88,298
Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for Iran successfully targeting commercial shipping, driven primarily by Tehran's economic reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for 20% of global oil flows and the deterrent effect of U.S. naval deployments like the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. Recent developments include Iran's April seizure of the MSC Aries container ship amid Israel tensions, but no direct missile strikes on merchant vessels since 2019 tanker attacks; proxy Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea continue without Iranian escalation. Upcoming catalysts include potential Israeli reprisals following Iran's October missile barrage and UN sanctions talks, which could shift risk assessments if rhetoric intensifies.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "March 29" con 12%, seguido de "March 28" con 11%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 12¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 12% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?" ha generado $88.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?" es "March 29" con 12%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 12% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "March 28" con 11%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Irán apunta con éxito al envío el...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.