Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mojtaba Khamenei as the frontrunner at 47% to serve as Iran's Supreme Leader by year-end, following his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 9 after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in a US-Israeli strike on February 28. This reflects IRGC-backed continuity amid wartime pressures and defiance signals, despite controversy over dynastic succession contradicting the regime's anti-hereditary foundations. Recent state media statements attributed to Mojtaba, including a March 20 Persian New Year message, counter injury rumors from the same strikes—citing leg wounds and possible coma—but his lack of public appearances fuels uncertainty, capping odds below 50%. Reza Pahlavi's 13% share captures speculation on opposition-led regime change if instability escalates, with Israeli threats to target successors adding volatility ahead of potential ceasefires or further airstrikes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 46.8%
Reza Pahlavi 13%
Sin Jefe de Estado 5.8%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.6%
$5,476,125 Vol.
$5,476,125 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
47%
Reza Pahlavi
13%
Sin Jefe de Estado
6%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
6%
Hassan Khomeini
6%
Alireza Arafi
5%
Hassan Rouhani
3%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadineyad
1%
Nasir Hosseini
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 46.8%
Reza Pahlavi 13%
Sin Jefe de Estado 5.8%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.6%
$5,476,125 Vol.
$5,476,125 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
47%
Reza Pahlavi
13%
Sin Jefe de Estado
6%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
6%
Hassan Khomeini
6%
Alireza Arafi
5%
Hassan Rouhani
3%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadineyad
1%
Nasir Hosseini
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Mojtaba Khamenei as the frontrunner at 47% to serve as Iran's Supreme Leader by year-end, following his swift appointment by the Assembly of Experts on March 9 after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in a US-Israeli strike on February 28. This reflects IRGC-backed continuity amid wartime pressures and defiance signals, despite controversy over dynastic succession contradicting the regime's anti-hereditary foundations. Recent state media statements attributed to Mojtaba, including a March 20 Persian New Year message, counter injury rumors from the same strikes—citing leg wounds and possible coma—but his lack of public appearances fuels uncertainty, capping odds below 50%. Reza Pahlavi's 13% share captures speculation on opposition-led regime change if instability escalates, with Israeli threats to target successors adding volatility ahead of potential ceasefires or further airstrikes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes