**Incumbent Rep. Mike Quigley's decisive 65% win in the March 17 Democratic primary—defeating three challengers by wide margins—has solidified trader consensus at 93% implied probability for a Democratic hold in the safely blue IL-05 House race.** The district's D+19 partisan voting index and history of strong Democratic presidential performance underpin this positioning, with Quigley securing 69% against Republican Tommy Hanson in 2024 and similar blowouts in prior cycles despite Hanson's repeated nomination. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting the area's college-educated electorate and Quigley's incumbency edge with over $1.2 million cash on hand. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or a national GOP wave, though precedents indicate low risk before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIL-05 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
IL-05 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Rep. Mike Quigley's decisive 65% win in the March 17 Democratic primary—defeating three challengers by wide margins—has solidified trader consensus at 93% implied probability for a Democratic hold in the safely blue IL-05 House race.** The district's D+19 partisan voting index and history of strong Democratic presidential performance underpin this positioning, with Quigley securing 69% against Republican Tommy Hanson in 2024 and similar blowouts in prior cycles despite Hanson's repeated nomination. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting the area's college-educated electorate and Quigley's incumbency edge with over $1.2 million cash on hand. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or a national GOP wave, though precedents indicate low risk before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Rep. Mike Quigley's decisive 65% win in the March 17 Democratic primary—defeating three challengers by wide margins—has solidified trader consensus at 93% implied probability for a Democratic hold in the safely blue IL-05 House race.** The district's D+19 partisan voting index and history of strong Democratic presidential performance underpin this positioning, with Quigley securing 69% against Republican Tommy Hanson in 2024 and similar blowouts in prior cycles despite Hanson's repeated nomination. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting the area's college-educated electorate and Quigley's incumbency edge with over $1.2 million cash on hand. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or a national GOP wave, though precedents indicate low risk before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Rep. Mike Quigley's decisive 65% win in the March 17 Democratic primary—defeating three challengers by wide margins—has solidified trader consensus at 93% implied probability for a Democratic hold in the safely blue IL-05 House race.** The district's D+19 partisan voting index and history of strong Democratic presidential performance underpin this positioning, with Quigley securing 69% against Republican Tommy Hanson in 2024 and similar blowouts in prior cycles despite Hanson's repeated nomination. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting the area's college-educated electorate and Quigley's incumbency edge with over $1.2 million cash on hand. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, health issues, or a national GOP wave, though precedents indicate low risk before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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