Trader consensus favors 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting early-year ICE removal pace of roughly 55,000-80,000 through March amid logistical constraints like limited detention capacity and flight operations, projecting modestly higher totals without major acceleration. DHS's January 20 announcement of 12,000 new officers—boosting ICE enforcement 120%—and Border Czar Tom Homan's vows for expanded interior operations beyond criminals have lifted mid-range bins like 400,000-500,000 to 24%, but data inconsistencies and local backlash, such as the Minnesota surge drawdown in February, temper expectations for over 500,000. Historical peaks under prior administrations hovered near 400,000 annually, underscoring capacity barriers despite executive hiring pushes.