Name: ¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?
Start: 2025-11-05T16:50:56.564543Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

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During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. 

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

<200k

200-300 mil

300,000-400,000

400-500 mil

500-600 mil

600-700k

700-800 mil

800-900 mil

900k-1m

>1 millón

Conteo de Deportaciones

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

This is a market on the prediction of the number of people Trump will deport in 2025.

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2025?

As of market creation, CME Group is estimated to release earnings on February 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for CME Group’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.74 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if CME Group reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.74 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If CME Group releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


¿Superará CME Group (CME) las ganancias trimestrales?

As of market creation, New York Times Company is estimated to release earnings on February 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for New York Times Company’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if New York Times Company reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If New York Times Company releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


¿La compañía New York Times (NYT) superará las ganancias trimestrales?

As of market creation, Texas Instruments is estimated to release earnings on January 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Texas Instruments's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas Instruments reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Texas Instruments releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. 
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


¿Texas Instruments (TXN) superará las ganancias trimestrales?

As of market creation, Tesla is estimated to release earnings on January 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Tesla’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.45 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.45 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Tesla releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

<200k
$1,090 Vol.
10%

200-300 mil
$634 Vol.
10%

300,000-400,000
$602 Vol.
25%

400-500 mil
$453 Vol.
17%

500-600 mil
$419 Vol.
6%

600-700k
$364 Vol.
7%

700-800 mil
$815 Vol.
8%

800-900 mil
$516 Vol.
7%

900k-1m
$399 Vol.
6%

>1 millón
$864 Vol.
18%

Contexto del Mercado

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

Reglas

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

Contexto del Mercado

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

Acerca de

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

<200k$1,090 Vol.10%Comprar Sí12¢Comprar No92¢

200-300 mil$634 Vol.10%Comprar Sí11¢Comprar No92¢

300,000-400,000$602 Vol.25%Comprar Sí28¢Comprar No78¢

400-500 mil$453 Vol.17%Comprar Sí19¢Comprar No86¢

500-600 mil$419 Vol.6%Comprar Sí7¢Comprar No95¢

600-700k$364 Vol.7%Comprar Sí8¢Comprar No94¢

700-800 mil$815 Vol.8%Comprar Sí9¢Comprar No94¢

800-900 mil$516 Vol.7%Comprar Sí8¢Comprar No94¢

900k-1m$399 Vol.6%Comprar Sí7¢Comprar No95¢

>1 millón$864 Vol.18%Comprar Sí19¢Comprar No84¢

Contexto del Mercado

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

Reglas

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

Contexto del Mercado

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

Acerca de

<200k
$1,090 Vol.
10%

200-300 mil
$634 Vol.
10%

300,000-400,000
$602 Vol.
25%

400-500 mil
$453 Vol.
17%

500-600 mil
$419 Vol.
6%

600-700k
$364 Vol.
7%

700-800 mil
$815 Vol.
8%

800-900 mil
$516 Vol.
7%

900k-1m
$399 Vol.
6%

>1 millón
$864 Vol.
18%