Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, reflecting the Trump administration's March 18, 2026, issuance of a limited 60-day waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) to ease fuel and fertilizer transport amid Iran conflict-driven energy market volatility. This temporary measure highlights longstanding capacity constraints in U.S.-flagged vessels but faces fierce opposition from maritime unions and industry groups like the American Waterways Operators, prioritizing national security and domestic jobs over cost reductions. No legislative momentum exists for full repeal—H.R.665, targeting noncontiguous routes, remains stalled in the House Transportation Committee since January 2025—with waiver expiration around May 17 as the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$47,622 Vol.
$47,622 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$47,622 Vol.
$47,622 Vol.
30 jun 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, reflecting the Trump administration's March 18, 2026, issuance of a limited 60-day waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) to ease fuel and fertilizer transport amid Iran conflict-driven energy market volatility. This temporary measure highlights longstanding capacity constraints in U.S.-flagged vessels but faces fierce opposition from maritime unions and industry groups like the American Waterways Operators, prioritizing national security and domestic jobs over cost reductions. No legislative momentum exists for full repeal—H.R.665, targeting noncontiguous routes, remains stalled in the House Transportation Committee since January 2025—with waiver expiration around May 17 as the key near-term catalyst.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volumen
$47,622Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, reflecting the Trump administration's March 18, 2026, issuance of a limited 60-day waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) to ease fuel and fertilizer transport amid Iran conflict-driven energy market volatility. This temporary measure highlights longstanding capacity constraints in U.S.-flagged vessels but faces fierce opposition from maritime unions and industry groups like the American Waterways Operators, prioritizing national security and domestic jobs over cost reductions. No legislative momentum exists for full repeal—H.R.665, targeting noncontiguous routes, remains stalled in the House Transportation Committee since January 2025—with waiver expiration around May 17 as the key near-term catalyst.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$47,622Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability against removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, reflecting the Trump administration's March 18, 2026, issuance of a limited 60-day waiver under 46 U.S.C. § 501(a) to ease fuel and fertilizer transport amid Iran conflict-driven energy market volatility. This temporary measure highlights longstanding capacity constraints in U.S.-flagged vessels but faces fierce opposition from maritime unions and industry groups like the American Waterways Operators, prioritizing national security and domestic jobs over cost reductions. No legislative momentum exists for full repeal—H.R.665, targeting noncontiguous routes, remains stalled in the House Transportation Committee since January 2025—with waiver expiration around May 17 as the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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