Amid the US-Israel war on Iran entering its second month, Israeli airstrikes have confirmed hits in three sovereign states—Iran (nuclear sites and missile arrays in Tehran and Isfahan as of March 27), Lebanon (Hezbollah targets amid ground operations), and Syria—driving the razor-thin trader split with ≥4 countries at 53% implied probability versus 3 at 44%. The contest stays tight due to debate over whether actions against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Houthi positions in Yemen count as distinct sovereign strikes, particularly after Yemen's first direct missile barrage on Israel March 28. Final-days escalation or US-brokered ceasefire talks could push toward four or more before March resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en marzo?
¿Cuántos países diferentes atacará Israel en marzo?
$299,243 Vol.
$299,243 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
47%
≥4
54%
$299,243 Vol.
$299,243 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
$82,291 Vol.
47%
≥4
$187,766 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran entering its second month, Israeli airstrikes have confirmed hits in three sovereign states—Iran (nuclear sites and missile arrays in Tehran and Isfahan as of March 27), Lebanon (Hezbollah targets amid ground operations), and Syria—driving the razor-thin trader split with ≥4 countries at 53% implied probability versus 3 at 44%. The contest stays tight due to debate over whether actions against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Houthi positions in Yemen count as distinct sovereign strikes, particularly after Yemen's first direct missile barrage on Israel March 28. Final-days escalation or US-brokered ceasefire talks could push toward four or more before March resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$299,243Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran entering its second month, Israeli airstrikes have confirmed hits in three sovereign states—Iran (nuclear sites and missile arrays in Tehran and Isfahan as of March 27), Lebanon (Hezbollah targets amid ground operations), and Syria—driving the razor-thin trader split with ≥4 countries at 53% implied probability versus 3 at 44%. The contest stays tight due to debate over whether actions against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Houthi positions in Yemen count as distinct sovereign strikes, particularly after Yemen's first direct missile barrage on Israel March 28. Final-days escalation or US-brokered ceasefire talks could push toward four or more before March resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$299,243Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the US-Israel war on Iran entering its second month, Israeli airstrikes have confirmed hits in three sovereign states—Iran (nuclear sites and missile arrays in Tehran and Isfahan as of March 27), Lebanon (Hezbollah targets amid ground operations), and Syria—driving the razor-thin trader split with ≥4 countries at 53% implied probability versus 3 at 44%. The contest stays tight due to debate over whether actions against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Houthi positions in Yemen count as distinct sovereign strikes, particularly after Yemen's first direct missile barrage on Israel March 28. Final-days escalation or US-brokered ceasefire talks could push toward four or more before March resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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