With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of March 27—including veterans like Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jerrold Nadler, plus several eyeing Senate bids—traders price 24–27 total non-candidates at 36.5%, anticipating 3–6 more announcements in the coming months. This reflects a record-early wave of 57 House retirements overall (21 Democrats, 36 Republicans), the second-highest since tracking began, driven by congressional gridlock and midterm dynamics where the president's party historically loses seats. No new Democratic announcements occurred in March, but vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts and filing deadlines could prompt further exits, keeping higher ranges like 28–31 and 32–35 viable at 15% each.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado24–27 37%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40 o más 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
10%
24–27
37%
28–31
15%
32–35
15%
36–39
6%
40 o más
6%
24–27 37%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40 o más 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$0 Vol.
2%
20–23
$3,774 Vol.
10%
24–27
$3,153 Vol.
37%
28–31
$0 Vol.
15%
32–35
$0 Vol.
15%
36–39
$0 Vol.
6%
40 o más
$0 Vol.
6%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of March 27—including veterans like Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jerrold Nadler, plus several eyeing Senate bids—traders price 24–27 total non-candidates at 36.5%, anticipating 3–6 more announcements in the coming months. This reflects a record-early wave of 57 House retirements overall (21 Democrats, 36 Republicans), the second-highest since tracking began, driven by congressional gridlock and midterm dynamics where the president's party historically loses seats. No new Democratic announcements occurred in March, but vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts and filing deadlines could prompt further exits, keeping higher ranges like 28–31 and 32–35 viable at 15% each.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$6,927Fecha de finalización
Aug 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of March 27—including veterans like Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jerrold Nadler, plus several eyeing Senate bids—traders price 24–27 total non-candidates at 36.5%, anticipating 3–6 more announcements in the coming months. This reflects a record-early wave of 57 House retirements overall (21 Democrats, 36 Republicans), the second-highest since tracking began, driven by congressional gridlock and midterm dynamics where the president's party historically loses seats. No new Democratic announcements occurred in March, but vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts and filing deadlines could prompt further exits, keeping higher ranges like 28–31 and 32–35 viable at 15% each.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,927Fecha de finalización
Aug 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms as of March 27—including veterans like Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jerrold Nadler, plus several eyeing Senate bids—traders price 24–27 total non-candidates at 36.5%, anticipating 3–6 more announcements in the coming months. This reflects a record-early wave of 57 House retirements overall (21 Democrats, 36 Republicans), the second-highest since tracking began, driven by congressional gridlock and midterm dynamics where the president's party historically loses seats. No new Democratic announcements occurred in March, but vulnerable incumbents in battleground districts and filing deadlines could prompt further exits, keeping higher ranges like 28–31 and 32–35 viable at 15% each.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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