California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of the East Bay in Alameda County, maintains a strong Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+39, which underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5% for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon, who won the seat in 2024 with 65% of the vote and faces minimal intra-party opposition in the June 2 top-two primary, benefits from established voter registration advantages and consistent historical performance in the district. Forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented turnout swing or a major unforeseen development such as a scandal involving the Democratic candidate or a significant national political shift before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-12 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-12 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$23,142 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,212 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of the East Bay in Alameda County, maintains a strong Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+39, which underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5% for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon, who won the seat in 2024 with 65% of the vote and faces minimal intra-party opposition in the June 2 top-two primary, benefits from established voter registration advantages and consistent historical performance in the district. Forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented turnout swing or a major unforeseen development such as a scandal involving the Democratic candidate or a significant national political shift before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$37,355Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of the East Bay in Alameda County, maintains a strong Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+39, which underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5% for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon, who won the seat in 2024 with 65% of the vote and faces minimal intra-party opposition in the June 2 top-two primary, benefits from established voter registration advantages and consistent historical performance in the district. Forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented turnout swing or a major unforeseen development such as a scandal involving the Democratic candidate or a significant national political shift before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$37,355Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of the East Bay in Alameda County, maintains a strong Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+39, which underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5% for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon, who won the seat in 2024 with 65% of the vote and faces minimal intra-party opposition in the June 2 top-two primary, benefits from established voter registration advantages and consistent historical performance in the district. Forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented turnout swing or a major unforeseen development such as a scandal involving the Democratic candidate or a significant national political shift before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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