Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting 21 announcements to date—including retirees like Nancy Pelosi (CA-11), Steny Hoyer (MD-5), and Nydia Velazquez (NY-7), plus eight running for Senate or governor—while anticipating 3–6 more amid record congressional turnover rivaling 2018 levels. Recent Republican retirements, such as Sam Graves (MO-6) on March 27, have dominated headlines, but Democratic exits cluster among aging members in safe districts, driven by long tenures and midterm pressures on the minority party. No new Democratic announcements in March have shifted odds, but upcoming state primary filing deadlines through summer could accelerate decisions, with historical patterns showing late-cycle surges in vulnerable or competitive seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado24–27 37%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40 o más 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
10%
24–27
37%
28–31
15%
32–35
15%
36–39
6%
40 o más
6%
24–27 37%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40 o más 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$0 Vol.
2%
20–23
$3,774 Vol.
10%
24–27
$3,153 Vol.
37%
28–31
$0 Vol.
15%
32–35
$0 Vol.
15%
36–39
$0 Vol.
6%
40 o más
$0 Vol.
6%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting 21 announcements to date—including retirees like Nancy Pelosi (CA-11), Steny Hoyer (MD-5), and Nydia Velazquez (NY-7), plus eight running for Senate or governor—while anticipating 3–6 more amid record congressional turnover rivaling 2018 levels. Recent Republican retirements, such as Sam Graves (MO-6) on March 27, have dominated headlines, but Democratic exits cluster among aging members in safe districts, driven by long tenures and midterm pressures on the minority party. No new Democratic announcements in March have shifted odds, but upcoming state primary filing deadlines through summer could accelerate decisions, with historical patterns showing late-cycle surges in vulnerable or competitive seats.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$6,927Fecha de finalización
Aug 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting 21 announcements to date—including retirees like Nancy Pelosi (CA-11), Steny Hoyer (MD-5), and Nydia Velazquez (NY-7), plus eight running for Senate or governor—while anticipating 3–6 more amid record congressional turnover rivaling 2018 levels. Recent Republican retirements, such as Sam Graves (MO-6) on March 27, have dominated headlines, but Democratic exits cluster among aging members in safe districts, driven by long tenures and midterm pressures on the minority party. No new Democratic announcements in March have shifted odds, but upcoming state primary filing deadlines through summer could accelerate decisions, with historical patterns showing late-cycle surges in vulnerable or competitive seats.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,927Fecha de finalización
Aug 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 36.5%, reflecting 21 announcements to date—including retirees like Nancy Pelosi (CA-11), Steny Hoyer (MD-5), and Nydia Velazquez (NY-7), plus eight running for Senate or governor—while anticipating 3–6 more amid record congressional turnover rivaling 2018 levels. Recent Republican retirements, such as Sam Graves (MO-6) on March 27, have dominated headlines, but Democratic exits cluster among aging members in safe districts, driven by long tenures and midterm pressures on the minority party. No new Democratic announcements in March have shifted odds, but upcoming state primary filing deadlines through summer could accelerate decisions, with historical patterns showing late-cycle surges in vulnerable or competitive seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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