Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House members not running for re-election in 2026 at 36.5%, aligning closely with trackers showing 21 (Ballotpedia, AP News) to 27 (House Press Gallery) incumbents already announced as of March 27, including retirees like Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jared Golden alongside Senate hopefuls such as Angie Craig and Jasmine Crockett. This elevated tally—well above historical midterm averages of around 11 Democratic departures—stems from an unprecedented retirement wave fueled by aging lawmakers, attractive bids for governor or U.S. Senate seats, and mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas. No new Democratic announcements emerged in the past week amid Republican-led exits, but spring filing deadlines could prompt additional decisions, keeping higher bins like 32–35 viable at 15.2%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado24–27 37%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40 o más 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
10%
24–27
37%
28–31
15%
32–35
15%
36–39
6%
40 o más
6%
24–27 37%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40 o más 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$0 Vol.
2%
20–23
$3,774 Vol.
10%
24–27
$3,153 Vol.
37%
28–31
$0 Vol.
15%
32–35
$0 Vol.
15%
36–39
$0 Vol.
6%
40 o más
$0 Vol.
6%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House members not running for re-election in 2026 at 36.5%, aligning closely with trackers showing 21 (Ballotpedia, AP News) to 27 (House Press Gallery) incumbents already announced as of March 27, including retirees like Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jared Golden alongside Senate hopefuls such as Angie Craig and Jasmine Crockett. This elevated tally—well above historical midterm averages of around 11 Democratic departures—stems from an unprecedented retirement wave fueled by aging lawmakers, attractive bids for governor or U.S. Senate seats, and mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas. No new Democratic announcements emerged in the past week amid Republican-led exits, but spring filing deadlines could prompt additional decisions, keeping higher bins like 32–35 viable at 15.2%.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$6,927Fecha de finalización
Aug 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House members not running for re-election in 2026 at 36.5%, aligning closely with trackers showing 21 (Ballotpedia, AP News) to 27 (House Press Gallery) incumbents already announced as of March 27, including retirees like Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jared Golden alongside Senate hopefuls such as Angie Craig and Jasmine Crockett. This elevated tally—well above historical midterm averages of around 11 Democratic departures—stems from an unprecedented retirement wave fueled by aging lawmakers, attractive bids for governor or U.S. Senate seats, and mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas. No new Democratic announcements emerged in the past week amid Republican-led exits, but spring filing deadlines could prompt additional decisions, keeping higher bins like 32–35 viable at 15.2%.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,927Fecha de finalización
Aug 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House members not running for re-election in 2026 at 36.5%, aligning closely with trackers showing 21 (Ballotpedia, AP News) to 27 (House Press Gallery) incumbents already announced as of March 27, including retirees like Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jared Golden alongside Senate hopefuls such as Angie Craig and Jasmine Crockett. This elevated tally—well above historical midterm averages of around 11 Democratic departures—stems from an unprecedented retirement wave fueled by aging lawmakers, attractive bids for governor or U.S. Senate seats, and mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas. No new Democratic announcements emerged in the past week amid Republican-led exits, but spring filing deadlines could prompt additional decisions, keeping higher bins like 32–35 viable at 15.2%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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