Oklahoma’s entrenched Republican advantage in statewide races, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and absence of a Democratic Senate victory since 2002, underpins the market’s 92.5% probability for a Republican winner in the November 2026 general election. The open seat created by Markwayne Mullin’s departure for the Department of Homeland Security has drawn a competitive Republican primary on June 16 featuring Kevin Hern as the early frontrunner with institutional backing, while the Democratic primary remains low-profile with candidates such as Troy Green and Jim Priest. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Republican, consistent with recent presidential margins exceeding 30 points. Traders price in these structural factors, though a major scandal affecting the eventual nominee or an unforeseen national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$13,531 Vol.
$13,531 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
93%
Demócrata
7%
$13,531 Vol.
$13,531 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$8,234 Vol.
93%
Demócrata
$5,296 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma’s entrenched Republican advantage in statewide races, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and absence of a Democratic Senate victory since 2002, underpins the market’s 92.5% probability for a Republican winner in the November 2026 general election. The open seat created by Markwayne Mullin’s departure for the Department of Homeland Security has drawn a competitive Republican primary on June 16 featuring Kevin Hern as the early frontrunner with institutional backing, while the Democratic primary remains low-profile with candidates such as Troy Green and Jim Priest. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Republican, consistent with recent presidential margins exceeding 30 points. Traders price in these structural factors, though a major scandal affecting the eventual nominee or an unforeseen national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volumen
$13,531Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma’s entrenched Republican advantage in statewide races, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and absence of a Democratic Senate victory since 2002, underpins the market’s 92.5% probability for a Republican winner in the November 2026 general election. The open seat created by Markwayne Mullin’s departure for the Department of Homeland Security has drawn a competitive Republican primary on June 16 featuring Kevin Hern as the early frontrunner with institutional backing, while the Democratic primary remains low-profile with candidates such as Troy Green and Jim Priest. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Republican, consistent with recent presidential margins exceeding 30 points. Traders price in these structural factors, though a major scandal affecting the eventual nominee or an unforeseen national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$13,531Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma’s entrenched Republican advantage in statewide races, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and absence of a Democratic Senate victory since 2002, underpins the market’s 92.5% probability for a Republican winner in the November 2026 general election. The open seat created by Markwayne Mullin’s departure for the Department of Homeland Security has drawn a competitive Republican primary on June 16 featuring Kevin Hern as the early frontrunner with institutional backing, while the Democratic primary remains low-profile with candidates such as Troy Green and Jim Priest. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Republican, consistent with recent presidential margins exceeding 30 points. Traders price in these structural factors, though a major scandal affecting the eventual nominee or an unforeseen national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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