Traders' overwhelming 100% implied probability on Toronto's March 22 high temperature reaching 12°C or below stems from consensus short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting daytime highs of 4-8°C under a persistent cold upper-level trough over eastern North America. This positioning aligns with verified recent observations of sub-freezing nights transitioning to mild but subdued afternoons, consistent with March climatology where historical highs average 7°C and exceed 12°C only about 25% of the time per Environment Canada records. Realistic challenges include an abrupt warm front or downslope föhn effects from Lake Ontario, potentially lifting temps to 13-15°C, though current ensemble spreads deem this under 5% likely absent model upsets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
12°C or below 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
12°C or below
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
12°C or below 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$0 Vol.
No
14°C
$0 Vol.
No
15°C
$0 Vol.
No
16°C
$0 Vol.
No
17°C
$0 Vol.
No
18°C
$0 Vol.
No
19°C
$0 Vol.
No
20°C
$0 Vol.
No
21°C
$0 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders' overwhelming 100% implied probability on Toronto's March 22 high temperature reaching 12°C or below stems from consensus short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting daytime highs of 4-8°C under a persistent cold upper-level trough over eastern North America. This positioning aligns with verified recent observations of sub-freezing nights transitioning to mild but subdued afternoons, consistent with March climatology where historical highs average 7°C and exceed 12°C only about 25% of the time per Environment Canada records. Realistic challenges include an abrupt warm front or downslope föhn effects from Lake Ontario, potentially lifting temps to 13-15°C, though current ensemble spreads deem this under 5% likely absent model upsets.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Mar 22, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders' overwhelming 100% implied probability on Toronto's March 22 high temperature reaching 12°C or below stems from consensus short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting daytime highs of 4-8°C under a persistent cold upper-level trough over eastern North America. This positioning aligns with verified recent observations of sub-freezing nights transitioning to mild but subdued afternoons, consistent with March climatology where historical highs average 7°C and exceed 12°C only about 25% of the time per Environment Canada records. Realistic challenges include an abrupt warm front or downslope föhn effects from Lake Ontario, potentially lifting temps to 13-15°C, though current ensemble spreads deem this under 5% likely absent model upsets.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Mar 22, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Traders' overwhelming 100% implied probability on Toronto's March 22 high temperature reaching 12°C or below stems from consensus short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting daytime highs of 4-8°C under a persistent cold upper-level trough over eastern North America. This positioning aligns with verified recent observations of sub-freezing nights transitioning to mild but subdued afternoons, consistent with March climatology where historical highs average 7°C and exceed 12°C only about 25% of the time per Environment Canada records. Realistic challenges include an abrupt warm front or downslope föhn effects from Lake Ontario, potentially lifting temps to 13-15°C, though current ensemble spreads deem this under 5% likely absent model upsets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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