Trader consensus locks in 22°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 21 at 100% implied probability, driven by the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) precise forecast of a daytime high capped at 22°C amid partly cloudy conditions and steady northeasterly winds from a lingering cool front. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing stable low-level stability and temperatures tracking 1-2°C below the March historical average of 23°C at Songshan station. Recent soundings confirm minimal warm air advection. Challenges could arise from delayed frontal clearing or enhanced urban heat island effects pushing to 23°C, but divergent model signals remain negligible below 1%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 21?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 21?
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 21, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 21, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
No
17°C
$0 Vol.
No
18°C
$0 Vol.
No
19°C
$0 Vol.
No
20°C
$0 Vol.
No
21°C
$0 Vol.
No
22°C
$0 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$0 Vol.
No
24°C
$0 Vol.
No
25°C
$0 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by Taipei's Central Weather Administration in degrees Celsius on 21 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus locks in 22°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 21 at 100% implied probability, driven by the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) precise forecast of a daytime high capped at 22°C amid partly cloudy conditions and steady northeasterly winds from a lingering cool front. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing stable low-level stability and temperatures tracking 1-2°C below the March historical average of 23°C at Songshan station. Recent soundings confirm minimal warm air advection. Challenges could arise from delayed frontal clearing or enhanced urban heat island effects pushing to 23°C, but divergent model signals remain negligible below 1%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by Taipei's Central Weather Administration in degrees Celsius on 21 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Mar 21, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by Taipei's Central Weather Administration in degrees Celsius on 21 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus locks in 22°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 21 at 100% implied probability, driven by the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) precise forecast of a daytime high capped at 22°C amid partly cloudy conditions and steady northeasterly winds from a lingering cool front. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing stable low-level stability and temperatures tracking 1-2°C below the March historical average of 23°C at Songshan station. Recent soundings confirm minimal warm air advection. Challenges could arise from delayed frontal clearing or enhanced urban heat island effects pushing to 23°C, but divergent model signals remain negligible below 1%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by Taipei's Central Weather Administration in degrees Celsius on 21 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Mar 21, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus locks in 22°C as Taipei's highest temperature on March 21 at 100% implied probability, driven by the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) precise forecast of a daytime high capped at 22°C amid partly cloudy conditions and steady northeasterly winds from a lingering cool front. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing stable low-level stability and temperatures tracking 1-2°C below the March historical average of 23°C at Songshan station. Recent soundings confirm minimal warm air advection. Challenges could arise from delayed frontal clearing or enhanced urban heat island effects pushing to 23°C, but divergent model signals remain negligible below 1%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes