Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.5%, underscoring persistent price pressures with recent CPI holding near 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment steady at 4.4%. Chair Powell emphasized inflation risks in his post-meeting remarks, aligning with CME FedWatch's 94.8% April hold odds and diminishing cut expectations through summer. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI data and the imminent April policy session.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12%
Cut–Cut–Pause 3.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 jul 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
2%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
4%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12%
Cut–Cut–Pause 3.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 jul 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$322 Vol.
2%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$163 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$189 Vol.
4%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$151 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$539 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$183 Vol.
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$170 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$195 Vol.
1%
Other
$196 Vol.
13%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.5%, underscoring persistent price pressures with recent CPI holding near 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment steady at 4.4%. Chair Powell emphasized inflation risks in his post-meeting remarks, aligning with CME FedWatch's 94.8% April hold odds and diminishing cut expectations through summer. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI data and the imminent April policy session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,108Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.5%, underscoring persistent price pressures with recent CPI holding near 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment steady at 4.4%. Chair Powell emphasized inflation risks in his post-meeting remarks, aligning with CME FedWatch's 94.8% April hold odds and diminishing cut expectations through summer. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI data and the imminent April policy session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$2,108Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.5%, underscoring persistent price pressures with recent CPI holding near 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment steady at 4.4%. Chair Powell emphasized inflation risks in his post-meeting remarks, aligning with CME FedWatch's 94.8% April hold odds and diminishing cut expectations through summer. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI data and the imminent April policy session.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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