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Elecciones·Parciales

Ganador de la primaria demócrata CT-01

Market icon
Elecciones·Parciales

Ganador de la primaria demócrata CT-01

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 23%

Ruth Fortune 6%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 23%

Ruth Fortune 6%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin

$2,746 Vol.

47%

John Larson

$461 Vol.

30%

Ruth Fortune

$0 Vol.

6%

Jillian Gilchrest

$0 Vol.

4%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Luke Bronin holds a trader consensus edge at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, ahead of incumbent John Larson at 32%, driven by Bronin's superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised compared to Larson's reliance on self-funding and PAC support—and recent polling averages from Data for Progress and Emerson showing Bronin leading 42-31% and 48-35%, respectively, as of early July. Larson's 15-term incumbency and endorsements from major unions like SEIU provide a floor, but criticism of his age and legislative productivity amid Hartford's economic struggles favors the challenger. No major developments in the past 48 hours; traders eye the August 13 primary, where urban turnout and suburban swing voters in Hartford County could decide the closely contested race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$3,207
Fecha de finalización
Aug 11, 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Luke Bronin holds a trader consensus edge at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, ahead of incumbent John Larson at 32%, driven by Bronin's superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised compared to Larson's reliance on self-funding and PAC support—and recent polling averages from Data for Progress and Emerson showing Bronin leading 42-31% and 48-35%, respectively, as of early July. Larson's 15-term incumbency and endorsements from major unions like SEIU provide a floor, but criticism of his age and legislative productivity amid Hartford's economic struggles favors the challenger. No major developments in the past 48 hours; traders eye the August 13 primary, where urban turnout and suburban swing voters in Hartford County could decide the closely contested race.

Luke Bronin holds a trader consensus edge at 46.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, ahead of incumbent John Larson at 32%, driven by Bronin's superior fundraising—over $1.1 million raised compared to Larson's reliance on self-funding and PAC support—and recent polling averages from Data for Progress and Emerson showing Bronin leading 42-31% and 48-35%, respectively, as of early July. Larson's 15-term incumbency and endorsements from major unions like SEIU provide a floor, but criticism of his age and legislative productivity amid Hartford's economic struggles favors the challenger. No major developments in the past 48 hours; traders eye the August 13 primary, where urban turnout and suburban swing voters in Hartford County could decide the closely contested race.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de la primaria demócrata CT-01" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Luke Bronin" con 47%, seguido de "John Larson" con 30%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 47¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Ganador de la primaria demócrata CT-01" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Feb 26, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Ganador de la primaria demócrata CT-01", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de la primaria demócrata CT-01" es "Luke Bronin" con 47%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "John Larson" con 30%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de la primaria demócrata CT-01" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.