Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the April 28-29 Copom meeting, building on the March initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since 2024—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target by late 2027. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing a gradual path despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient energy shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding at 4.1% for 2026. Upside risks to inflation persistence or further Focus revisions above the 4.5% tolerance ceiling could realistically prompt a pause, challenging the strong decrease bias.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDisminuir 94.0%
Sin cambio 5.1%
Aumento <1%
$298,890 Vol.
$298,890 Vol.
28 abr 2026
Aumento
1%
Sin cambio
5%
Disminuir
94%
Disminuir 94.0%
Sin cambio 5.1%
Aumento <1%
$298,890 Vol.
$298,890 Vol.
28 abr 2026
Aumento
$156,459 Vol.
1%
Sin cambio
$69,237 Vol.
5%
Disminuir
$73,195 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the April 28-29 Copom meeting, building on the March initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since 2024—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target by late 2027. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing a gradual path despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient energy shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding at 4.1% for 2026. Upside risks to inflation persistence or further Focus revisions above the 4.5% tolerance ceiling could realistically prompt a pause, challenging the strong decrease bias.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Volumen
$298,890Fecha de finalización
28 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the April 28-29 Copom meeting, building on the March initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since 2024—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target by late 2027. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing a gradual path despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient energy shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding at 4.1% for 2026. Upside risks to inflation persistence or further Focus revisions above the 4.5% tolerance ceiling could realistically prompt a pause, challenging the strong decrease bias.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$298,890Fecha de finalización
28 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil Selic rate decrease at the April 28-29 Copom meeting, building on the March initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first since 2024—amid projections for inflation convergence to the 3% target by late 2027. This positioning reflects Copom's forward guidance emphasizing a gradual path despite March IPCA inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on transient energy shocks from Middle East tensions, with Focus survey expectations holding at 4.1% for 2026. Upside risks to inflation persistence or further Focus revisions above the 4.5% tolerance ceiling could realistically prompt a pause, challenging the strong decrease bias.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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