Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chicago's highest temperature on March 27, with 40-45°F bins capturing over 64% implied probability amid conflicting GFS and ECMWF runs. The National Weather Service's latest guidance points to a high near 43°F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, but ensemble means diverge by 3-4°F due to variable cloud cover and a weak frontal boundary stalling nearby. Recent 12z model updates show slight warming from prior runs, driven by ridging aloft, yet cold-air advection risks could cap peaks at 40°F; historical late-March volatility at O'Hare (observing station) averages similar spreads. Watch evening model refreshes and tomorrow's 06z guidance for potential shifts ahead of resolution based on official hourly observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
40-41°F 22%
42-43°F 21%
44-45°F 20.6%
46-47°F 11%
$56,790 Vol.
$56,790 Vol.
33°F or below
1%
34-35°F
3%
36-37°F
6%
38-39°F
9%
40-41°F
22%
42-43°F
21%
44-45°F
21%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
1%
52°F or higher
1%
40-41°F 22%
42-43°F 21%
44-45°F 20.6%
46-47°F 11%
$56,790 Vol.
$56,790 Vol.
33°F or below
1%
34-35°F
3%
36-37°F
6%
38-39°F
9%
40-41°F
22%
42-43°F
21%
44-45°F
21%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
1%
52°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chicago's highest temperature on March 27, with 40-45°F bins capturing over 64% implied probability amid conflicting GFS and ECMWF runs. The National Weather Service's latest guidance points to a high near 43°F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, but ensemble means diverge by 3-4°F due to variable cloud cover and a weak frontal boundary stalling nearby. Recent 12z model updates show slight warming from prior runs, driven by ridging aloft, yet cold-air advection risks could cap peaks at 40°F; historical late-March volatility at O'Hare (observing station) averages similar spreads. Watch evening model refreshes and tomorrow's 06z guidance for potential shifts ahead of resolution based on official hourly observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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