Latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF place Chicago's March 28 high temperature in the tight 48-53°F range, driving trader consensus toward those bins with 50-51°F (23.5%) and 48-49°F (23%) leading amid minimal spread. Persistent mid-level clouds from a recent weak cold front have limited solar insolation, capping daytime heating, while light southerly winds introduce mild boundary-layer advection but struggle against overcast skies. Differentiating factors include subtle model variances in afternoon cloud breaks—ECMWF slightly warmer at 51°F peak versus GFS's 49°F—and urban heat island effects at O'Hare, the likely resolution site. Afternoon surface observations and updated 00z model runs will clarify the peak, underscoring inherent forecast uncertainty in transitional spring patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
48-49°F 23%
50-51°F 22%
52-53°F 19%
46-47°F 16%
43°F or below
5%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
23%
50-51°F
22%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
48-49°F 23%
50-51°F 22%
52-53°F 19%
46-47°F 16%
43°F or below
5%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
23%
50-51°F
22%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF place Chicago's March 28 high temperature in the tight 48-53°F range, driving trader consensus toward those bins with 50-51°F (23.5%) and 48-49°F (23%) leading amid minimal spread. Persistent mid-level clouds from a recent weak cold front have limited solar insolation, capping daytime heating, while light southerly winds introduce mild boundary-layer advection but struggle against overcast skies. Differentiating factors include subtle model variances in afternoon cloud breaks—ECMWF slightly warmer at 51°F peak versus GFS's 49°F—and urban heat island effects at O'Hare, the likely resolution site. Afternoon surface observations and updated 00z model runs will clarify the peak, underscoring inherent forecast uncertainty in transitional spring patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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