Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in Chicago on March 18, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, which converge on daytime highs in this narrow range amid persistent cool northerly flows and lingering winter-like conditions over the Midwest. Official observations show current anomalies aligning with below-average March norms—historical highs average 43°F—bolstered by high-pressure ridging suppressing warmth. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified short-range accuracy of high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) guidance. Realistic challenges include an unexpected warm front or jet streak shift, potentially lifting temps to 50°F+, though probability remains under 1% per probabilistic outputs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 18. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 18. März?
46-47°F 100.0%
33°F oder darunter <1%
34-35°F <1%
36-37°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
33°F oder darunter
Nein
34-35°F
Nein
36-37°F
Nein
38-39°F
Nein
40-41°F
Nein
42-43°F
Nein
44-45°F
Nein
46-47°F
Ja
48-49°F
Nein
50-51°F
Nein
52°F oder höher
Nein
46-47°F 100.0%
33°F oder darunter <1%
34-35°F <1%
36-37°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
33°F oder darunter
Nein
34-35°F
Nein
36-37°F
Nein
38-39°F
Nein
40-41°F
Nein
42-43°F
Nein
44-45°F
Nein
46-47°F
Ja
48-49°F
Nein
50-51°F
Nein
52°F oder höher
Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 14, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in Chicago on March 18, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, which converge on daytime highs in this narrow range amid persistent cool northerly flows and lingering winter-like conditions over the Midwest. Official observations show current anomalies aligning with below-average March norms—historical highs average 43°F—bolstered by high-pressure ridging suppressing warmth. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified short-range accuracy of high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) guidance. Realistic challenges include an unexpected warm front or jet streak shift, potentially lifting temps to 50°F+, though probability remains under 1% per probabilistic outputs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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