President-elect Donald Trump's firm rhetoric against Iran, including recent Truth Social posts vowing to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons amid reports of foiled assassination plots targeting him, underscores ongoing tensions driving this market. However, formal declarations of war—a congressional power unused since World War II—remain improbable, with Trump favoring his first-term "maximum pressure" strategy of sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and targeted strikes like the 2020 Soleimani operation over invasion. The past week's dramatic fall of Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria weakens Tehran's regional influence, reducing escalation incentives. No major military exchanges between US and Iran forces in the last 30 days; trader consensus reflects low odds absent congressional authorization or direct provocation post-January 20 inauguration.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$534,097 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
3月31日
2%
4月30日
4%
$534,097 交易量
3月31日
$205,893 交易量
2%
4月30日
$1,183 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President-elect Donald Trump's firm rhetoric against Iran, including recent Truth Social posts vowing to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons amid reports of foiled assassination plots targeting him, underscores ongoing tensions driving this market. However, formal declarations of war—a congressional power unused since World War II—remain improbable, with Trump favoring his first-term "maximum pressure" strategy of sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and targeted strikes like the 2020 Soleimani operation over invasion. The past week's dramatic fall of Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria weakens Tehran's regional influence, reducing escalation incentives. No major military exchanges between US and Iran forces in the last 30 days; trader consensus reflects low odds absent congressional authorization or direct provocation post-January 20 inauguration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$534,097结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President-elect Donald Trump's firm rhetoric against Iran, including recent Truth Social posts vowing to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons amid reports of foiled assassination plots targeting him, underscores ongoing tensions driving this market. However, formal declarations of war—a congressional power unused since World War II—remain improbable, with Trump favoring his first-term "maximum pressure" strategy of sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and targeted strikes like the 2020 Soleimani operation over invasion. The past week's dramatic fall of Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria weakens Tehran's regional influence, reducing escalation incentives. No major military exchanges between US and Iran forces in the last 30 days; trader consensus reflects low odds absent congressional authorization or direct provocation post-January 20 inauguration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$534,097结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President-elect Donald Trump's firm rhetoric against Iran, including recent Truth Social posts vowing to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons amid reports of foiled assassination plots targeting him, underscores ongoing tensions driving this market. However, formal declarations of war—a congressional power unused since World War II—remain improbable, with Trump favoring his first-term "maximum pressure" strategy of sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and targeted strikes like the 2020 Soleimani operation over invasion. The past week's dramatic fall of Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria weakens Tehran's regional influence, reducing escalation incentives. No major military exchanges between US and Iran forces in the last 30 days; trader consensus reflects low odds absent congressional authorization or direct provocation post-January 20 inauguration.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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