Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.2% implied probability of "No" for Congress passing any tariffs by March 31, driven primarily by the absence of active legislation in the newly seated 119th Congress, where slim Republican majorities prioritize budget reconciliation and debt ceiling talks over trade bills. The legislative timeline—requiring committee approval, floor votes, and reconciliation—renders enactment implausible in under three months, especially as President Trump favors executive tools like Section 232 duties, bypassing Congress. Tail risks include a sudden trade escalation prompting bipartisan fast-tracking or procedural overrides, though historical precedents like 2018 tariffs show executive dominance, keeping market odds firmly anchored.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$22,914 交易量
$22,914 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$22,914 交易量
$22,914 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
交易量
$22,914结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$22,914结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.2% implied probability of "No" for Congress passing any tariffs by March 31, driven primarily by the absence of active legislation in the newly seated 119th Congress, where slim Republican majorities prioritize budget reconciliation and debt ceiling talks over trade bills. The legislative timeline—requiring committee approval, floor votes, and reconciliation—renders enactment implausible in under three months, especially as President Trump favors executive tools like Section 232 duties, bypassing Congress. Tail risks include a sudden trade escalation prompting bipartisan fast-tracking or procedural overrides, though historical precedents like 2018 tariffs show executive dominance, keeping market odds firmly anchored.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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