Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 leans heavily toward none or few participants, with market odds implying low probabilities across major powers due to the absence of formal diplomatic commitments. Recent UN Security Council discussions on global conflict resolution highlighted interest in new multilateral frameworks but yielded no specific endorsements for the initiative, originally floated in regional forums amid Middle East tensions. Key holdouts include the US, China, and EU states, prioritizing existing alliances like NATO and ASEAN over untested boards. Traders eye the March 25-31 diplomatic summit in Geneva as a potential catalyst, though historical base rates for rapid international board formations remain under 20% without binding incentives.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$2,032,223 交易量
巴西
2%
印度
2%
俄罗斯
2%
英国
2%
意大利
2%
西班牙
1%
挪威
1%
瑞典
1%
比利时
1%
巴勒斯坦
1%
德国
1%
法国
1%
乌克兰
1%
中国
1%
芬兰
1%
丹麦
1%
荷兰
1%
瑞士
<1%
$2,032,223 交易量
巴西
2%
印度
2%
俄罗斯
2%
英国
2%
意大利
2%
西班牙
1%
挪威
1%
瑞典
1%
比利时
1%
巴勒斯坦
1%
德国
1%
法国
1%
乌克兰
1%
中国
1%
芬兰
1%
丹麦
1%
荷兰
1%
瑞士
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 leans heavily toward none or few participants, with market odds implying low probabilities across major powers due to the absence of formal diplomatic commitments. Recent UN Security Council discussions on global conflict resolution highlighted interest in new multilateral frameworks but yielded no specific endorsements for the initiative, originally floated in regional forums amid Middle East tensions. Key holdouts include the US, China, and EU states, prioritizing existing alliances like NATO and ASEAN over untested boards. Traders eye the March 25-31 diplomatic summit in Geneva as a potential catalyst, though historical base rates for rapid international board formations remain under 20% without binding incentives.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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