Traders assign a 99% implied probability against Xi Jinping divorcing Peng Liyuan before 2027 because state media and official records show no indications of marital strain, while Peng continues her public role as first lady in recent diplomatic events, including the September 2026 SCO Summit and state visit to the United States. Chinese Communist Party norms prioritize a stable family image for leadership authority, and past unverified rumors from 2025 were contradicted by her documented activities afterward. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden undisclosed health crisis or internal political upheaval prompting an abrupt change in personal status, though such outcomes remain highly constrained by information controls and institutional priorities.