Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by the absence of verified plots amid President Xi Jinping's sustained anti-corruption purges in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Late January 2026 investigations into Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Director Liu Zhenli fueled unsubstantiated social media rumors of a January 18 gunfight or failed coup, but official state media framed these as routine discipline measures, with no evidence of organized resistance emerging. Subsequent months have seen no further escalations or widely reported challenges to CCP leadership stability, underscoring Xi's consolidated control over military and party structures. While opaque internal dynamics persist, such high odds reflect the formidable barriers to any challenge, though late-breaking scandals or PLA factionalism could shift sentiment before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$110,934 交易量
$110,934 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$110,934 交易量
$110,934 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by the absence of verified plots amid President Xi Jinping's sustained anti-corruption purges in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Late January 2026 investigations into Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Director Liu Zhenli fueled unsubstantiated social media rumors of a January 18 gunfight or failed coup, but official state media framed these as routine discipline measures, with no evidence of organized resistance emerging. Subsequent months have seen no further escalations or widely reported challenges to CCP leadership stability, underscoring Xi's consolidated control over military and party structures. While opaque internal dynamics persist, such high odds reflect the formidable barriers to any challenge, though late-breaking scandals or PLA factionalism could shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$110,934结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by the absence of verified plots amid President Xi Jinping's sustained anti-corruption purges in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Late January 2026 investigations into Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Director Liu Zhenli fueled unsubstantiated social media rumors of a January 18 gunfight or failed coup, but official state media framed these as routine discipline measures, with no evidence of organized resistance emerging. Subsequent months have seen no further escalations or widely reported challenges to CCP leadership stability, underscoring Xi's consolidated control over military and party structures. While opaque internal dynamics persist, such high odds reflect the formidable barriers to any challenge, though late-breaking scandals or PLA factionalism could shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$110,934结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by the absence of verified plots amid President Xi Jinping's sustained anti-corruption purges in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Late January 2026 investigations into Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Director Liu Zhenli fueled unsubstantiated social media rumors of a January 18 gunfight or failed coup, but official state media framed these as routine discipline measures, with no evidence of organized resistance emerging. Subsequent months have seen no further escalations or widely reported challenges to CCP leadership stability, underscoring Xi's consolidated control over military and party structures. While opaque internal dynamics persist, such high odds reflect the formidable barriers to any challenge, though late-breaking scandals or PLA factionalism could shift sentiment before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题