Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 leans toward limited participation, with low implied probabilities on major powers like the US, China, and Russia, reflecting diplomatic inertia and no confirmed accessions since its recent formation. Primary drivers include stalled multilateral talks amid Ukraine and Middle East tensions, where primary sources show only exploratory discussions from neutral states like Switzerland and Brazil. Recent developments feature UN General Assembly debates on peace mechanisms without binding commitments, while speculation swirls around African Union endorsements. Upcoming catalysts: Potential G20 side meetings in February and EU foreign ministers' session on March 15 could signal shifts, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing geopolitical uncertainty at under 20% for top contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,798,855 交易量
俄罗斯
2%
印度
2%
乌克兰
2%
巴勒斯坦
2%
英国
2%
意大利
2%
比利时
1%
巴西
1%
德国
1%
瑞典
1%
挪威
1%
法国
1%
芬兰
1%
西班牙
1%
丹麦
1%
荷兰
1%
瑞士
1%
中国
1%
$1,798,855 交易量
俄罗斯
2%
印度
2%
乌克兰
2%
巴勒斯坦
2%
英国
2%
意大利
2%
比利时
1%
巴西
1%
德国
1%
瑞典
1%
挪威
1%
法国
1%
芬兰
1%
西班牙
1%
丹麦
1%
荷兰
1%
瑞士
1%
中国
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 leans toward limited participation, with low implied probabilities on major powers like the US, China, and Russia, reflecting diplomatic inertia and no confirmed accessions since its recent formation. Primary drivers include stalled multilateral talks amid Ukraine and Middle East tensions, where primary sources show only exploratory discussions from neutral states like Switzerland and Brazil. Recent developments feature UN General Assembly debates on peace mechanisms without binding commitments, while speculation swirls around African Union endorsements. Upcoming catalysts: Potential G20 side meetings in February and EU foreign ministers' session on March 15 could signal shifts, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing geopolitical uncertainty at under 20% for top contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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