Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for most countries joining the Board of Peace by the March 31 deadline, primarily due to the absence of official announcements or confirmed diplomatic commitments from founding members or candidates. No primary sources, such as government statements or international organization releases, have verified any accessions amid ongoing global tensions in conflict zones like Ukraine and the Middle East. Recent developments include vague discussions at UN forums, but these remain speculative without binding agreements. Traders should monitor potential last-minute endorsements or bilateral talks before the cutoff, as historical patterns for new international boards show expansions hinge on multilateral consensus and face delays from sovereignty concerns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$2,431,376 交易量
印度
3%
英国
2%
中国
2%
巴西
2%
意大利
2%
西班牙
1%
比利时
1%
瑞典
1%
芬兰
1%
法国
1%
德国
1%
挪威
1%
丹麦
1%
荷兰
1%
俄罗斯
1%
瑞士
1%
巴勒斯坦
<1%
乌克兰
<1%
$2,431,376 交易量
印度
3%
英国
2%
中国
2%
巴西
2%
意大利
2%
西班牙
1%
比利时
1%
瑞典
1%
芬兰
1%
法国
1%
德国
1%
挪威
1%
丹麦
1%
荷兰
1%
俄罗斯
1%
瑞士
1%
巴勒斯坦
<1%
乌克兰
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for most countries joining the Board of Peace by the March 31 deadline, primarily due to the absence of official announcements or confirmed diplomatic commitments from founding members or candidates. No primary sources, such as government statements or international organization releases, have verified any accessions amid ongoing global tensions in conflict zones like Ukraine and the Middle East. Recent developments include vague discussions at UN forums, but these remain speculative without binding agreements. Traders should monitor potential last-minute endorsements or bilateral talks before the cutoff, as historical patterns for new international boards show expansions hinge on multilateral consensus and face delays from sovereignty concerns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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