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经济·Jerome Powell

美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？

Market icon
经济·Jerome Powell

美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？

$1,277,342 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$1,277,342 交易量

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$43,011 交易量

4%

↑ 5.25%

$136,294 交易量

5%

↑ 5.0%

$10,055 交易量

4%

↑ 4.75%

$65,847 交易量

4%

↑ 4.5%

$10,972 交易量

6%

↑ 4.25%

$22,043 交易量

10%

↓ 3.25%

$53,849 交易量

54%

↓ 3.0%

$216,065 交易量

33%

↓ 2.75%

$250,453 交易量

19%

↓ 2.5%

$172,171 交易量

17%

↓ 2.25%

$22,779 交易量

8%

↓ 2.0%

$15,062 交易量

8%

↓ 1.75%

$5,983 交易量

9%

↓ 1.5%

$24,836 交易量

9%

↓ 1.25%

$893 交易量

26%

↓ 1.0%

$0 交易量

9%

↓ 0.75%

$388 交易量

9%

↓ 0.5%

$89,298 交易量

8%

↓ 0.25%

$118,119 交易量

7%

↓ 0%

$10,220 交易量

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with the effective rate at 3.64%, following steady policy at the March 2026 FOMC meeting amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000—exceeding forecasts—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, signaling inflation near the Fed's 2% goal without urgency for cuts. CME FedWatch Tool implies over 95% probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with futures pricing a flat path around 3.6% through year-end. Polymarket traders reflect this consensus, assigning low odds to sub-3.25% levels before 2027, though March CPI data due April 10 could shift rate cut expectations if softer than anticipated.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
交易量
$1,277,342
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with the effective rate at 3.64%, following steady policy at the March 2026 FOMC meeting amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000—exceeding forecasts—while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, signaling inflation near the Fed's 2% goal without urgency for cuts. CME FedWatch Tool implies over 95% probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with futures pricing a flat path around 3.6% through year-end. Polymarket traders reflect this consensus, assigning low odds to sub-3.25% levels before 2027, though March CPI data due April 10 could shift rate cut expectations if softer than anticipated.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
交易量
$1,277,342
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 21 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"↓ 3.5%"，概率为 100%，其次是"↓ 3.25%"，概率为 54%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"已产生 $1.3 million 的总交易量（自Nov 18, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 21 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"的当前领先者是"↓ 3.5%"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"↓ 3.25%"，概率为 54%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。